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#1
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This is kind of a probability question but it relates to NFL betting so I'll post it here:
My friend is thinking of doing a 10 team, 21 point teaser for the NFL. He has to risk $170 to win $100. He has to go 10/10 to win, but he gets 21 points for each game. What is the EV for this and how would one calculate it? |
#2
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Using data from NFL games from 93 to 04, I get 94.837% of the games that a team managed to cover the spread +21 points. I'm not sure how ties effect this bet, but I will ignore them for now.
Anyway, the probability of winning this is simply .94837^10 or about 58.85%. That's not enough to make it profitable (needs ~63%) but it's not impossible that if your friend picks the correct 10 sides that it could be +EV. Frankly I'm a little surprised because when I read this I thought it would be a much bigger "suckers" bet. Edit: What are the rules on ties? This could have a pretty significant effect, and if "ties lose" is the case, the win pct drops to 55.3%. |
#3
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My guess is that ties lose. The OP said you had to win them all. Of course, they could just mean that you can't lose even one.
craig |
#4
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All their other teasers use the "ties count as no action and the teaser reverts to a one-fewer-selection bet" - it's not likely they'd have one rule for 6 point teasers and a different one for 20 pointers.
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#5
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[ QUOTE ]
All their other teasers use the "ties count as no action and the teaser reverts to a one-fewer-selection bet" - it's not likely they'd have one rule for 6 point teasers and a different one for 20 pointers [/ QUOTE ] Check the rules for monster teasers. All the way at the bottom it says "ALL TIES LOSE" |
#6
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I did - and they do.
I'm filing this under "oops". - Chris |
#7
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Doug, Where do you get those stats, i'm kind of new to sports betting. Thanks.
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#8
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Can you include totals too, or just sides?
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#9
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Anyone know what site takes this bet? If it is not appropriate to say feel free to pm me.
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#10
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5Dimes takes these things. They call them Monster Teasers and ties lose.
Tech...you can use totals in them too,even team totals. I was looking at them the week Baltimore played Pittsburgh and the over for the Ravens for a 14 pt teaser was 4 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
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