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#1
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AA river decision
BB is solid (17/10/2.0)
SB is l/p (38/6/1.0) MP1 is a goofball (33/18/1.4) MP2 is solid (17/10/1.8)but knows that MP1 is a goofball and has adjusted his PF range. My image is pretty nitty, mostly due to being extremely card dead. Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls. Flop: (15 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero calls. Turn: (12.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, MP1 calls. River: (18.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls, BB calls. Final Pot: 21.50 BB I'm sure i'm gonna get ripped for not capping, but I thought I had a good chance to get somebody else to do it, and I didn't feel like flipping my hand over just yet... comments on all streets appreciated, especially the river thanks, lf EDIT cuz I messed up the stats. |
#2
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Re: AA river decision
looks like u got punished for not capping pf and the flop.
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#3
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Re: AA river decision
[ QUOTE ]
looks like u got punished for not capping pf and the flop. [/ QUOTE ] thanks for being insightful. No, really, I love it when people chime in with such well thought out responses, its great. I can understand the argument for capping PF, I honestly thought somebody else would. On the flop, however, if I cap I get checked to on the turn, and if I get c/r its by the BB, probably forcing out the goofball. By calling the flop I get $45 from both of them on the flop, and a guaranteed $60 on the turn for a total of $105 per player, or 210. If I cap I get $60 on the flop, and $30 on the turn (possibly from only one player, if goofball has overcards, which seems likely given the action until the river) which puts only $150 in the pot, costing me 2BB. Thanks again for really digging into the situation and looking at it from all angles. Next time you post, try including the "why" with your "what". Its no wonder some of the more experienced posters get irritated by stuff like that. lf |
#4
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Re: AA river decision
i don't like not capping preflop. i like calling the flop 3 bet and raising the turn.
i think you'll find the bb has jacks or maybe tens and mp1(goofball) might have outdrawn you with his pair or 8's but is more likely value betting something goofy. i'm just calling this river because you should draw an overcall from bb while not leaving yourself open to a reraise when goofball has you beat |
#5
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Re: AA river decision
I think it's fine except preflop where you really want to discourage MP2 from isolating light so you can sneak into pots behind the donk.
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#6
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Re: AA river decision
I like all streets post flop, including the river, nh. As Dave pointed out you want to discourage MP2 from isolating the donkey pf and capping when you've got it will set him up for later when you don't.
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#7
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Re: AA river decision
Raise the river and I don't think it's close.
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#8
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Re: AA river decision
[ QUOTE ]
Raise the river and I don't think it's close. [/ QUOTE ] Thats interesting. I felt the BB had some smaller overpair, and might not call 2 bets cold. The donk from the goofball certainly looked like a hand that wanted to ensure the river didn't get check through. Could be be any 2, 99 or 88. Do you think the of forcing out the guy I know I have beat and potentially getting 3bet by the guy that I can't put on a hand is the best move. I get two bets for sure by calling (one from each) if i'm ahead and loose 1 if goofball has a monster. If I raise the BB almost definately folds (my image is strong, if that matters), so I get 2 if i'm ahead (both from the goofball) and lose 3 if behind. Am I missing something that makes a raise the better play? thanks, lf |
#9
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Re: AA river decision
I think given this board, it would be hard for BB to laydown a smaller overpair. I'd given him a chance to call. I think chances that the goofball has you beat are extremely slim. I think if you raise, you will win 2 BBs most of the time and 4 BBs some of the times, and very very occasionally lose an extra 2 BBs. (i'm discounting those times where the goofball you 3-bets you on the river with a worse hand)
If you don't raise, you are guaranteeing only winning 2 BBs. So really, I guess it depends on your evaluation of the chances of BB calling with a smaller overpair vs chances of goofball having a better hand as well was chances of goofball folding to a river raise. I don't know I guess my inclination that that people often discount the chance of BB calling 2 cold in a spot like this. Not to be results oriented here, but do you think if you were BB you could fold QQ to a river raise? |
#10
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Re: AA river decision
[ QUOTE ]
but do you think if you were BB you could fold QQ to a river raise? [/ QUOTE ] I think so. The PF cold call of 3 bets screams a PP, who knows how big. He's certainly representing a big pair or a 2 (unlikely given his PF stats). After my QQ gets raised on the turn, then a new aggressor (who we both know to be a goofball) fires and the TAG who called 3 cold pre flop, jammed the flop and the turn raises, i'd be certain enough that QQ is no good, especially when possibly facing a 3 bet from the goofball, who may very well have a strangely played 99 or 2x, or a lucky 88. If I were to find a fold in this spot with QQ, would it be a mistake? lf |
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