Broadway--a river decision

BottlesOf · #1 12-31-2004, 07:13 PM

Villain here is a 53/11 with an AF of 1.0.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, BB folds, Hero 3-bets, SB calls.

River: (10.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero...

SCfuji · #2 12-31-2004, 07:19 PM

all i hear about 15/30 players is that they go crazy with one pair. but, the AF of 1.0 makes me wonder why the villain went crazy on the turn. i would prefer calling. did villain showdown T2 or 22?

private joker · #3 12-31-2004, 07:19 PM

Raise and call a 3-bet? I don't see him playing AJ or JT on the flop that way. Even with the planned turn c/r. If he flopped 2 pair he should bet into you, let you raise, then c/r the turn.

IndieMatty · #4 12-31-2004, 07:21 PM

Had the exact same hand today, and my villian had AJ.

I still raise though.

BWebb · #5 12-31-2004, 07:23 PM

Raise and I can't believe this is even close.

BottlesOf · #6 12-31-2004, 07:25 PM

Really? I think it's knida close...I might suck though.

What percentage of the time that he calls the river raise do I have the best hand? What percentage of the time will he 3-bet and I'll call with a loser?

private joker · #7 12-31-2004, 07:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]

What percentage of the time that he calls the river raise do I have the best hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

90%. He will 3-bet with a full house except for the 5% of the time he's a total moron. The other 5% is a chop because he also had KQ.

[ QUOTE ]
What percentage of the time will he 3-bet and I'll call with a loser?

[/ QUOTE ]

75% of the time. He could be getting excited by trip jacks, he could have AK or AQ and think your two pair was counterfeited, and it could be a chop. But that's only 25% of the time. Of course, this is all assuming the guy is a retard. If he's good, a 3-bet means you're toast. But I couldn't bring myself to raise and fold to a 3-bet.

BottlesOf · #8 12-31-2004, 07:50 PM

I think you misunderstood my questions, or I worded them poorly.

The two numbers I want can't equal 100%. Lemme thhink about this again.

astrodon · #9 12-31-2004, 08:13 PM

Let's look at it a bit differently. Assuming you lose 75% of the time as suggested, and you have to call 1 bet, with 12.5 BB in the pot then:
EV = (.75 * -1) + (.25 * 12.5)
EV = +2.375

You would have to raise 6+ BB before your EV was minimal, so 3 bet'm back or call. At least if he comes over the top of a 3 bet it may put him on slow playing JJ or just plain stupid - a lot of those out there.

Or maybe I suck [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

BWebb · #10 12-31-2004, 07:29 PM

It probably is close, and I probably suck. If your read on him is good, then maybe a call is in order. How many hands do you have on him?