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#1
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Odds of a major downswing?
I've tracked every $55 SNG since Party started allowing 10 tables, whether I was drunk, on tilt, whatever. Since then I've played 1540 $55s with a ROI of 14.5% (including a recent downswing). In October and November, my worst 300 SNG stretch was winning $1300. Over my last 299 SNGs I have lost $582.
OK, I've seen posts where Irieguy says even the best players will lose over 100-150 SNGs. I'm just wondering what the odds are that a long term 15% ROI player could lose 11 buy-ins over a 300 SNG stretch. I'm not even overly pissed, just wondering how big a statistical anomaly this is. I imagine there's less than a 1% of this occurring. Hopefully, Irie or someone will know more. |
#2
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Re: Odds of a major downswing?
1%, lol. All i know is ure guess is kinda low.
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#3
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Re: Odds of a major downswing?
Search for the ROI simulator. It will run simulations that will tell you this.
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#4
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Re: Odds of a major downswing?
[ QUOTE ]
Search for the ROI simulator. It will run simulations that will tell you this. [/ QUOTE ] ROISimulator Hosted Original Thread |
#5
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Re: Odds of a major downswing?
cool link, how come u have a .com domain?
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#6
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Re: Odds of a major downswing?
[ QUOTE ]
cool link, how come u have a .com domain? [/ QUOTE ] It's the fine work of "rvg72" of course... I host a couple sites for my kids sports/school. I had one not in use and had visions of creating a blog of some sorts...just haven't gotten around to it yet. |
#7
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Re: Odds of a major downswing?
Results:
For a 15% ROI player, there's a 96.2% chance that you will be breakeven or better over 300 SNGs. As for my question, there's about a 1.2% chance of that drop occurring over 300 SNGs. |
#8
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Re: Odds of a major downswing?
I think you should be calculating the chance that a 15% player has a -10 buyin 300 sng run within 1800 sngs.
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#9
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Re: Odds of a major downswing?
[ QUOTE ]
cool link, how come u have a .com domain? [/ QUOTE ] Cause he's a [censored] OG double OG ya heard? |
#10
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Re: Odds of a major downswing?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Search for the ROI simulator. It will run simulations that will tell you this. [/ QUOTE ] ROISimulator Hosted Original Thread [/ QUOTE ] Thanks for mentioning the app - glad it is getting some use. rvg |
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