Postflop questions

party36master · #1 04-15-2005, 08:09 AM

MP1 was 61/5 over 30 hands.
Do you think the flop call was weak? MP1 could have almost anything.

What about the turn raise?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (5.16 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.

River: (9.16 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets, Hero raises, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 13.16 BB

PokerBob · #2 04-15-2005, 08:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
MP1 was 61/5 over 30 hands.
Do you think the flop call was weak? MP1 could have almost anything.

What about the turn raise?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (5.16 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.

River: (9.16 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets, Hero raises, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 13.16 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

With this kind of vpip, he looks the kind of dummy who plays any ace. IMO you have maybe 3-4 outs on the flop, as when he leads the flop, he may very well have you reverse dominated or worse, a queen. I think you fold the flop.

Piiop · #3 04-15-2005, 08:31 AM

Can he really have anything on the flop? Does he frequently bet out with nothing or weak draws/low pairs? If so, I like a raise better than a call. I'd rather get it headsup with him and force out UTG+1.

Turn and river looks fine.

adamstewart · #4 04-15-2005, 09:50 AM

Fold the flop.

Do you see why? If not, I'll explain.

Adam

Piiop · #5 04-15-2005, 09:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Fold the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depending on this players postflop tendencies, this could be pretty terrible.

pokerjunky · #6 04-15-2005, 10:01 AM

Well, the pot is pretty small....

adamstewart · #7 04-15-2005, 10:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depending on this players postflop tendencies, this could be pretty terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perahps, but... this player's postflop tendencies are unknown. All we know is that he plays more than half his hands and only raises 5% preflop.

If I'm going to lean one way or the other, the villain's 5% PFR suggests that he isn't overly aggressive. Therefore, we should give some credit to his flop bet (especially leading into a preflop raiser).

By my calculations, calling the flop is NEUTRAL EV at best.

Adam

adamstewart · #8 04-15-2005, 10:05 AM

...further to my above post:

Give about 2.5 outs for three aces. Give 1.5 outs for backdoor flush draw. Give 1 out for hitting a ten.

That's about 5 outs. Getting 8:1 money is NEUTRAL EV. (Further Hero isn't even closing the action. Even getting 9:1 if UTG+1 calls isn't enough, but getting check-raised by him would suck).

We also have the reverse implied odds of hitting a Ten and losing still.

Adam

Piiop · #9 04-15-2005, 10:33 AM

I think you're discounting outs too much and giving the villain too much credit.

However, this is very player dependant.

chief444 · #10 04-15-2005, 10:53 AM

I see these types of opponents bet draws into preflop raisers all the time. I'm not saying that is the case here. I'm not saying a fold isn't best. But if you're looking at the calculations I think you need to assign some amount of equity to the chance that hero actually has the best hand at the moment. I don't think it would be much but it is something to be considered if looking at the math.