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#1
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20+2, TT on the bubble
I was pretty low on chips and sucked out to get back to where I am. I think jholt will fold to a push over the top quite rarely here. I've done no math, just curious what people's intuitions are.
Seat 2: racer1143 (6190 in chips) Seat 4: jholt (3335 in chips) Seat 6: gumpzilla (2920 in chips) Seat 9: pokmyneedle1 (1055 in chips) pokmyneedle1: posts small blind 75 racer1143: posts big blind 150 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to gumpzilla [Ts Tc] jholt: raises 350 to 500 gumpzilla: folds |
#2
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Re: 20+2, TT on the bubble
[ QUOTE ]
I think jholt will fold to a push over the top quite rarely here. [/ QUOTE ] any sense of how loose he's openning? if he's raising light, that could be a good thing. you have 20x stacks - i like a call better than a fold. i think i'd call unless i thought there was a decent chance villain is openning A6, 33, 78, etc, in which case i'd push. |
#3
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Re: 20+2, TT on the bubble
[ QUOTE ]
any sense of how loose he's openning? if he's raising light, that could be a good thing. [/ QUOTE ] I think the somewhat large PF raise for this stage in the game, from this player, is probably going to be a largish pair, AT+, maybe KQ. This guy had a tendency which I noticed more postflop to bet small with junk and bigger with quality. So I think he has confidence in what he's holding, at least, though precisely what that means I'm not sure. [ QUOTE ] you have 20x stacks - i like a call better than a fold. [/ QUOTE ] Given his bet and that I'm in the CO, I don't think the stacks are deep enough for me to be getting the implied odds to spike a set (again, I've done no math here) and the presence of the shortstack means I'm probably going to puss out if any overcards falls and he fires out. So I don't much like calling for that reason. |
#4
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Re: 20+2, TT on the bubble
[ QUOTE ]
I think the somewhat large PF raise for this stage in the game, from this player, is probably going to be a largish pair, AT+, maybe KQ. This guy had a tendency which I noticed more postflop to bet small with junk and bigger with quality. [/ QUOTE ] This really should be in the OP. I was going to say that this is a clear push given stack sizes (he's pretty much guaranteed to bubble if he loses, even though he has you barely covered), but with your read you can fold. I don't like calling for the same reasons as you, and also I have to fold to a squeeze play push from the big stack. |
#5
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Re: 20+2, TT on the bubble
[ QUOTE ]
I think the somewhat large PF raise for this stage in the game, from this player, is probably going to be a largish pair, AT+, maybe KQ. This guy had a tendency which I noticed more postflop to bet small with junk and bigger with quality. So I think he has confidence in what he's holding, at least, though precisely what that means I'm not sure. [/ QUOTE ] ok, then i'd fold. unless you're very confident in this tendency, in which case i'd call pre-flop and then fold overpairs to a big bet and push over small bets on AKx flops. |
#6
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Re: 20+2, TT on the bubble
I think this is a push or fold situation. Given your read he won't fold very many hands, you're only really behind 4, AA-JJ. How many other hands can you assign him that you're ahead of? AK-JT?
Are you willing to risk bubbling out to get 6k chips and almost guarantee 2nd/1st? I can't answer that for you, I'd be very tempted to push here. Drink More, RedRum |
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