Super Tuesday Hand - JJ against chip leader with 15 left

[Lloyd]

Here's what I think was a very interesting and tough hand from last night's Super Tuesday. There are 15 people left. I am probably seen as playing tightly. Most of my pre-flop raises have been uncalled. There was one hand where I raised UTG and the villain in this hand (the chip leader by almost 2x) re-raised me from the SB all-in (a fairly big overbet) with 99. On the last hand I pushed from MP with 77 and doubled up against AJ. The villain has been getting incredibly lucky. He's very aggressive and definitely using his stack to his advantage. However, I don't think he has absolute trash when raising in this hand.

Blinds 2000/4000
7-handed

Villain: t196340
Hero: t50882 (average is probably 75,000 but I'm right there with 5 or 6 other similar stacks)
Others: Have me covered although only 1 has 28k more than me

Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain is UTG and raises to t9000. Hero calls t9000. Folded around.

Pot: t24,000

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villain checks. Action is on hero.

What range of hands do you put him on? Check or bet (and, if so, how much) and why?

[Tyler Durden]

what position were you each in

[Lloyd]

Sorry. Edited to reflect he was UTG, I was next, and the table was 7-handed.

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry. Edited to reflect he was UTG, I was next, and the table was 7-handed.

[/ QUOTE ]

This would change my opinion with a lesser hand, but with this stack and JJ against a player who sounds unaware of his position, I can't see much of an argument for a fold. I think calling is a disaster given your hand and the price the blinds'll be getting.

[Lloyd]

FWIW, I was about 90% certain that if I called, it would be folded back to the villain and 100% certain that if anybody re-raised I would be dominated.

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I was about 90% certain that if I called, it would be folded back to the villain and 100% certain that if anybody re-raised I would be dominated.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you call, there's now 24k in the pot and BB has 5k to call, closing the action. Also, nobody reraises behind you here with AK after you call?

What am I missing here?

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I was about 90% certain that if I called, it would be folded back to the villain and 100% certain that if anybody re-raised I would be dominated.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your math is likely off here as well. Once you call there is about a 15-17% chance that one of your 5 remaining opponents has AK, AQs+ or TT+. I suspect most of them will at least call with these hands, and that some of them might play worse hands.

It's about 7% for any of the remaining opponents to have AA-QQ. Also I don't see how you could possibly believe that you are 100% to be dominated if someone reraises? Do you honestly believe that your opponents won't raise with AK or AKs?

[adanthar]

I'm pushing this and expecting to be called with the best hand.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pushing this and expecting to be called with the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you mean preflop. Which I would agree with. Too many ugly overs to fall and you don't know where you're at. So much already in the pot. Jam it in.


But what maniac raises in EP preflop and checks the flop to you and then calls your all in with a worse hand? I can't think of two cards that play it like that. That flop action terrifies me. I'm probably done here, save seeing a miracle J on the turn.


Everett

Push. I can't imagine folding here, and you've got too many chips to make a tricky call/call play here (plus, you invite the blinds in, which is a disaster).

Is there something that I'm missing? Is villain's raise not his typical amount? Positions?