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#1
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Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx
Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>. Flop: (5 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls. Turn: (3.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls. River: (5.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB folds. Final Pot: 6.50 BB |
#2
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Yeah this is alright. Slim river bet but a lot of guys will call down here with a T or J. Easy fold to check-raise.
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#3
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i think your betting for value here.
you would most likely have heard from a K here by now so, either he missed a draw which is now irrelevant (as you arent getting any more money from him) or, he has a weaker J or decent T that will look you up on the river the checkraise potential is negligent, so your comparing 1-1 and need him to have a K or QQ<50% of the time (in comparison to other made hands). i think you easily have that here. |
#4
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[ QUOTE ]
i think your betting for value here. you would most likely have heard from a K here by now so, either he missed a draw which is now irrelevant (as you arent getting any more money from him) or, he has a weaker J or decent T that will look you up on the river the checkraise potential is negligent, so your comparing 1-1 and need him to have a K or QQ<50% of the time (in comparison to other made hands). i think you easily have that here. [/ QUOTE ] Let me try to break this down: Hands Hero is ahead of that may call: JQ 8 J9 8 J8 8 AT 9 QT 11 (not hearts) ------------------ 44 Hands hero is ahead of that dont call: 89 15 (not hearts) Q8 15 (not hearts) Q7 15 (not hearts) 6c7c 1 7c8c 1 AcXc 8 ---------- 55 Hands hero is behind that will not check raise: K7 11 (not hearts) K8 11 (not hearts) K9 11 (not hearts) -------------------- 33 Hands hero is behind that may check raise Q9 16 KT 9 TJ 6 KJ 6 AQ 12 Ah9h 1 Qh8h 1 Qh7h 1 Kh9h 1 Kh8h 1 Kh7h 1 --------- 55 now given that thats a strange way to play some of these lets multiply them by 0.25 to represent the villan not playing these hands that way very often. So we have (44-33-13.75)/145.75 = -0.02 if we dont call check raise or (44-33-27.5)/145.75 = -0.1 if we call check raise So i think we should check behind. I never really did a math post before tho, and maybe somebody disagrees with me on the hand ranges. But I certainly think that if it is positive that its VERY thin. |
#5
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i disagree because they arent weighted
J8 will most likely not be played like this, JQ will therefore its more likely the vil holds JQ than J8, regardless of combinations |
#6
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[ QUOTE ]
i disagree because they arent weighted J8 will most likely not be played like this, JQ will therefore its more likely the vil holds JQ than J8, regardless of combinations [/ QUOTE ] I'd like to see someone with more experience callculate this out properly if one of you has the time. Thanks! |
#7
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Read helps, but it's fine as it stands IMO.
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#8
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I agree with that you should probably value bet here and just pray the guy didn't call from the small blind with something like K4o. This hand seems to scream draw that didn't get there, but you never know.
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#9
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Good value bet but make sure to fold if checkraised.
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#10
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I'm not seeing a lot of worse hands that call your river bet. Only the backdoor flush hit on the river, so it looks like a classic case of "your opponent probably missed his draw, and won't call a bet, but if he didn't, you're getting checkraised and lose one or two bets, depending on if you believe him or not." Check behind.
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