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#1
05-18-2005, 09:01 PM
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AI - hold, sell or hedge?
I have 11- Bo and 7- Carrie.
If I hold out, worst case (Carrie wins), is worth $700 and best case is worth $1100 If I liquidated now, its worth $850. So basically I am risking $150 to win $400 on Bo. Getting 2.7:1 on him at this point is a nice price. Or, I could hedge, and buy 4 more Carries for $160, and take 11 each to the finals. $1100 - $160 = $940. So in actuality, I am guaranteed $940 right now, and holding pat, I am risking $240 to win $400. Again, if Bo is the favorite, this is the best line, but how much a favorite is he (if any)? I think Bo is the best AI contestant ever, but Carrie has never been in the bottom 3, and has Simon in her back pocket... this has diminished in recent weeks, but it may be still to close to call... Whats the best move? 
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#2
05-18-2005, 09:17 PM
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Re: AI - hold, sell or hedge?
[ QUOTE ]
Whats the best move? [/ QUOTE ] Stick it in her pooper. Sorry. Couldn't resist. Well, it depends on your risk tolerance I guess. I've got 100 Bo's and haven't sold any yet. But thats me. I'm a sick gambler. Conclusion: Sell your Carries and ride the 2+2 Bo victory wave!! Tuco.
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#3
05-18-2005, 09:24 PM
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Re: AI - hold, sell or hedge?
did you buy the bo's on tradesports or wsex?
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#6
05-18-2005, 09:47 PM
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Re: AI - hold, sell or hedge?
[ QUOTE ]
Or, I could hedge, and buy 4 more Carries for $160, and take 11 each to the finals. $1100 - $160 = $940. [/ QUOTE ] An easier way to accomplish the same thing would be to just sell 4 Bo's (he's at $61 right now). This would net you $244 and give you a guaranteed $700 in the final, for $944 total.
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#8
05-18-2005, 10:26 PM
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Re: AI - hold, sell or hedge?
[ QUOTE ]
An easier way to accomplish the same thing would be to just sell 4 Bo's (he's at $61 right now). This would net you $244 and give you a guaranteed $700 in the final, for $944 total. [/ QUOTE ] This is probably what I would do if I were in your position. IMHO, bo has an edge right now (because he's carrying more momentum into the final), but Carrie certainly has a solid chance to win as well. If you do this now then you can choose to either take the guranteed $700 or if you're feeling confident one way or the other after the final performance show you can sell some/all of the dog and keep your pick and try to score some extra cash. GL, J Edited for clarity.
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#9
05-18-2005, 10:55 PM
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Re: AI - hold, sell or hedge?
I sold the 4 Bo's and locked in $700 for the finals, for a total of $944.
Holding Bo, I would then be risking $244 to win $400, which actually requires him to be a 63% or better favorite for this move to be +EV. I think Bo is great, but I don't think I can justify him being that much ahead at this point. I also think $61 is about as high as his price will go untill next week and theres a good chance it will slide back down this week as well because people won't be scrambling to buy him now at this price, its a sellers market...
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#10
05-18-2005, 11:05 PM
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Re: AI - hold, sell or hedge?
[ QUOTE ]
requires him to be a 63% or better favorite for this move to be +EV. [/ QUOTE ] I'm sure some/many will argue, but I think the final two are roughly Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] vs. A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] all-in preflop (Bo holds the ladies). He has an edge, but it's not a huge edge (it's not like he has Q5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] unfortunately), so good play. <font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Qh Qd 975909 56.99 730541 42.66 5854 0.34 0.572 As Kc 730541 42.66 975909 56.99 5854 0.34 0.428 </pre><hr />
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