Question for krishan re: "running good/bad" theory

Guy McSucker · #1 07-05-2005, 05:56 PM

Krishan developed a theory about running good/bad based on the number of straights, flushes and full houses one receives in this thread.

I never quite understood what numbers I was supposed to look at.

Is it this: PokerTracker Misc Stats, in the went to SD column and the W$SD column?

Krishan reckons we get one of each premium (straight, flush, house) in 170 hands, so for my current 34k database I should have taken 200 of each to showdown and won around 80% - is that right?

I only have around 150 of each...

Guy.

sthief09 · #2 07-05-2005, 06:04 PM

I don't buy it. how you do with these hands is what matters. when I get a hot run of cards, I'll sometimes get a lot of those hands busted and lose a ton of money.

J.R. · #3 07-05-2005, 06:07 PM

or get a bunch of big hands and not have anyone give you action

MarkD · #4 07-05-2005, 06:08 PM

Or both.

Rudis · #5 07-05-2005, 06:09 PM

The most annoying is raising 75s MP getting to SD cheap.
Then getting AA and everyone folds...
Way to go lagging up...=)

DMBFan23 · #6 07-05-2005, 06:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
or get a bunch of big hands and not have anyone give you action

[/ QUOTE ]

or get the big hands, and lose the big pots when you DO get action

krishanleong · #7 07-05-2005, 08:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
or get a bunch of big hands and not have anyone give you action

[/ QUOTE ]

or get the big hands, and lose the big pots when you DO get action

[/ QUOTE ]

This is taken into account in my theory. I use Win % at showdown to make sure premiums are winning at the usual rate.

Krishan

krishanleong · #8 07-05-2005, 08:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
or get a bunch of big hands and not have anyone give you action

[/ QUOTE ]

Another way I've thought of doing this is to find the average BB/won per premium over a large number of hands. Then you can just multiply the number of premiums by the expected BB per to find out if you are getting more action or less than you should. This also has the advantage of taking win % into account automatically.

Krishan

Lost Wages · #9 07-05-2005, 06:09 PM

I agree. Also important is what % of the time your draws are being completed. You can be making the "correct" number of flushes but flopping more draws than you should and thus be running bad. Missing solid draws is very expensive.

Lost Wages

krishanleong · #10 07-05-2005, 08:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't buy it. how you do with these hands is what matters. when I get a hot run of cards, I'll sometimes get a lot of those hands busted and lose a ton of money.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's the best anyone has proposed so far. It's not impeccable and of course it doesn't take into account the hands that don't make it to showdown. But in general it's pretty accurate.

Krishan