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#1
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A5o, another Bay101 hand.
Bay 101, $80/$160.
Same game/lineup as before. 4 limpers, I complete the SB with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], BB checks. 6 players Flop: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I check planning to evaluate the action and maybe checkraising a LP bettor, but it gets checked around. 6 players Turn: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I bet, BB folds, Tom (a solid playing regular in this game) raises from EP, folded back to me, I call? 2 players River: K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I check, Tom bets, I fold? Comments? |
#2
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Re: A5o, another Bay101 hand.
Tough decision. I hate it when it gets checked around PF like that.
Other than 2 big hearts, I dont see any hand you can beat. With no knowledge of the opponent other than he is solid, this would be a coin-flip for me on the river. If I have EVER seen him make a move on the river after his turn-raise-semi-bluff, I call. TSP |
#3
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Re: A5o, another Bay101 hand.
I think you have to call.
[ QUOTE ] I bet, BB folds, Tom (a solid playing regular in this game) raises from EP, folded back to me, I call? [/ QUOTE ] would he limp an ace here? a big ace? Chances are he's raising any ace he's playing, right? so he might have a decent king, a set or air (not sure how he gets to that point with two pair). the chances of him having air are good enough that I think you have to call. plus, your bet on the turn can be a flop checkraise gone bad or a stab at the pot. He's probably hoping it's a stab at the pot. |
#4
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Re: A5o, another Bay101 hand.
You play goot, M2d. He would limp AJ here, though if the game texture is the way it has been.
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#5
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Re: A5o, another Bay101 hand.
[ QUOTE ]
He would limp AJ here, though if the game texture is the way it has been. [/ QUOTE ] pwned because I haven't been playing and didn't know that. I just read "solid player", made assumptions about the game and spewed crappy advice. disregard and carry on (but I do like my line if it's a open-raise-a-playable-ace kind of vibe). |
#6
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Re: A5o, another Bay101 hand.
Isn't calling the turn wrong if you intend to fold the river unimproved...
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#7
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Re: A5o, another Bay101 hand.
[ QUOTE ]
Isn't calling the turn wrong if you intend to fold the river unimproved... [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure, it's one reason I posted. I do have a gutshot, which I'm certain would be good. Are my two pair outs good... maybe if he has a big ace. So if I'm currently behind I have somewhere between 4-7 outs, plus I thought there was a very small chance I had the best hand. Now when he bets the river, I just don't see a hand I can beat, he'd have to be on total air. |
#8
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Re: A5o, another Bay101 hand.
[ QUOTE ]
Isn't calling the turn wrong if you intend to fold the river unimproved... [/ QUOTE ] No. |
#9
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Re: A5o, another Bay101 hand.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Isn't calling the turn wrong if you intend to fold the river unimproved... [/ QUOTE ] No. [/ QUOTE ] Lol, I knew that "No" was a possible answer, that's why I asked...thx for the info anyways. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] Guess I'll have to think it through myself. Looking about the numbers, he only needs to be bluffing the turn about 5% of the time for that single call to be correct (we're getting 6:1 with a gutshot that comes in ~9% of the time.) Given that our turn bet looks kind of vulnerable, and the pot is laying him 2:1 on a bluff, he probably is bluffing more than 5%. Especially since he may not put you an A and think that he's really semi-bluffing a 6 out draw with his Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or something. But the question is, "How often will he fire the second barrel on the river?" Almost never if he has a pair (66, 87s, even 88 are possible), or improves to a pair, of course...which happens 13% of the time he was pure-bluffing the turn. So say he continues betting a worse hand on the river like 60% of the time. We're getting 8:1 on the river, so we need to be good 11% of the time. That would mean he would need to be bluffing the turn 19% of the time... Yeah, I agree, call the turn, fold the river. |
#10
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Re: A5o, another Bay101 hand.
Hands like this are why I hate calling with Ax unsuited out of the blinds. Here you got a perfect flop, and don't know what to do with it.
I like betting out this flop, like all of the time. If the button is an auto-bettor even into a large field, then checkraising is correct, but with that many limpers, people aren't stupid. Bet the flop. On the turn, if Tom is the white guy, let me tell you this - you are in an interesting spot. You are either toast or he's trying to buy the pot. I would call him down. He very likely could have a hand like AJ here, or he hit a set and was waiting for somebody to bet it. However, he does like to raise here, since he knows that people steal from up front in spots like you are in right here. |
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