Buying Points and Related Issues/Sports Betting Theory Question

[YoureToast]

"Hypothetically", Team A is favored against Team B by 5. I think Team A has a good chance of beating Team B by 20 points. Therefore, I am looking to get action on Team A at a point spread higher than 5. Suppose I could bet on Team A, give 5 points at -110. How do I go about determining at what number I should get to increase the line to 7? Related, if I can get the line at -10.5, how do I figure what fair value is?

I'm looking here not for some sort of general "feeling" type answer, but more of a mathematical approach.

Syg? Anyone?

Check out the NFL Pointspread Ties thread if you haven't yet.

Part 1 -- Using Tradesports as example, you can currently buy Atlanta -5.5 for -105.7 (51+(0.8 commission))/49 meaning the wager price converted to a percent is 51.39% (518/1008).

Part 2 -- you can expect the game to end on 6 and 7 with rough frequency of 3.10% and 5.36%, respectively. This means the value of Atlanta -7.5, offered on Tradesports, is equivalent to (51.39%-3.10-5.36)=42.93%. Why subtract the numbers in entirety? Because the new line moves over these numbers in whole and shifts 6 and 7 directly from win column to loss column.

Part 3 -- therefore if you made buy offers of 42.0 or fewer (or market making offers of 42.5 or fewer) you will be paying a lower amount for the -7.5 bet than you would for the -5.5 bet. (ed Non-market making offer of 42 is equivalent to (42.0+(0.8 comm))/(58.0+(42.0+(0.8 comm)) or 42.46%, below the relative expected frequency of 42.93%.

I don't compute values for landing on 8, 9 & 10 so can't estimate the Atlanta -10.5 contract on TS, nor is the market for that contract particularly liquid.

[YoureToast]

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Check out the NFL Pointspread Ties thread if you haven't yet.

Part 1 -- Using Tradesports as example, you can currently buy Atlanta -5.5 for -105.7 (51+(0.8 commission))/49 meaning the wager price converted to a percent is 51.39% (518/1008).

Part 2 -- you can expect the game to end on 6 and 7 with rough frequency of 3.10% and 5.36%, respectively. This means the value of Atlanta -7.5, offered on Tradesports, is equivalent to (51.39%-3.10-5.36)=42.93%. Why subtract the numbers in entirety? Because the new line moves over these numbers in whole and shifts 6 and 7 directly from win column to loss column.

Part 3 -- therefore if you made buy offers of 42.0 or fewer (or market making offers of 42.5 or fewer) you will be paying a lower amount for the -7.5 bet than you would for the -5.5 bet. (ed Non-market making offer of 42 is equivalent to (42.0+(0.8 comm))/(58.0+(42.0+(0.8 comm)) or 42.46%, below the relative expected frequency of 42.93%.

I don't compute values for landing on 8, 9 & 10 so can't value the Atlanta -10.5 contract on TS, nor is the market for that contract particularly liquid.

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Thanks Syg.

First, what makes you think I'm talking about the Atlanta game? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Second, the fact that its not liquid is a good reason to pay attention to it -- ie. theres a greater likelihood of finding real value.

Third, are the tools available to determine how often a team wins by more than 10 when that team is favored by 5 or 6 or 7? I know you've done this analysis on the small lines (ie. how often does a team win and not cover when the spread is 2 or 3, etc.) and that is the basis of your playing so many moneylines. But if we had the closing lines and final scores of all NFL games, we should be able to run an analysis that addresses my specific question. No?

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Second, the fact that its not liquid is a good reason to pay attention to it -- ie. theres a greater likelihood of finding real value.

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Well yes, but not in this particular case because of time issues. The buy-sell spread for -10.5 is 28-40 while the spread for -7.5 is 41-43. Obviously there's no harm in putting up a buy offer somewhere in the middle and hoping a fish jumps the hook but you may be wasting your time while the favorable prices for -7.5 escape you.

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Third, are the tools available to determine how often a team wins by more than 10 when that team is favored by 5 or 6 or 7? I know you've done this analysis on the small lines (ie. how often does a team win and not cover when the spread is 2 or 3, etc.) and that is the basis of your playing so many moneylines. But if we had the closing lines and final scores of all NFL games, we should be able to run an analysis that addresses my specific question. No?

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Not really, because the problem you run into is games at spread of 14 end on 10 with a lot more frequency than games with spread of Even, for example. My analysis is based on frequency of certain end results for games with proximate spreads to that result. 3.10% and 5.36% mean very little to a game with spread 17. I believe I may be addressing your point JTrout, which you're correct about.

[YoureToast]

I'm not interested for this purpose in knowing how often a game ends on a particular number; the query I'm seeking is one that would tell me this: In games in which a team covered a 6 pt spread, how often did that team win by at least 10 pts? 11 pts? 12 pts? Etc. If this question could be answered, I could then generate an approach to determining whether there is value in higher spreads.

So, maybe I'm not reading you correctly, but I don't think your response addresses that, does it?

Ah, I see where you're going with this. I don't have direct research on this type of thing. However, if it means anything, there are wagers called "challenge" bets or pleasers in which you give 6 points for 2+ games and get increased odds. Having done a little research on these recently, there is very little value to them. 6 points as it turns out is a lot of points to give in almost any situation.

[JTrout]

Question-

Your #s indicate 8.46% of the time NFL games end on 6 or 7.

Would this % be significantly different on games favored by 5 or 5.5, compared to all games?

My thinking is that games closer to even have 2 strong chances of ending on 6 or 7 (favored team and underdog).

And games with a 5+ pt. favorite have 1 strong chance of ending on 6 or 7 (favored team only).


It may or may not be a significant difference.
And I don't have such info available to me.

[ThomasJoe]

Do you use tradesports? If so are they reliable? Do you use pinnacle? thanks

Pinnacle and TS -- those are the two books I currently use.

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Example SD at NE total is 47.5 under minus 102 over minus 108. I say here why not take under 47 plus 105. I think this play makes more sense. It makes me into a bookie charging them juice as I do not think that there is any difference from 47.5 and 47.

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There's obviously a difference. According to your analysis, the buydown may be worth less than the cents you get in return but the potential loss of money remains. In addition, I think 47 is a relatively common total all things considered. No, a move from 47.5 to 47 (unlike 46.5) doesn't turn a win into a loss, but you still lose money if 47 hits.