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#1
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New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
Okay, I bet alot of CBB, very profitably for the past 3-4 years. I've posted hundreds of picks here, particularly in 2003 and 2004, and done very well taking a lot of dogs particularly during March Madness and conference play.
I follow a lot of conferences, but you can't follow all of them closely, and some favorites have to be good bets, so... A few friends and I were discussing various simple betting systems recently - for other conferences - and we started using the following system as an adjunct to our regular betting: 1) We bet home teams favored by less than 5 pts 2) No big 'rivalry' matchups, however. 3) We exclude matchups with both teams in the top 25. Essentially, we feel that 'home court advantage' is under-rated by the general public. However, in top 25 matchups where there is a lot of focus and also for rivalry games, i.e. Duke-UNC, LV-UK, Cinci-Xavier, people also focus on the value of home court advantage, so we toss those out also. So far, it has been wildly [unsustainably] successful. 21-5-1. Here were last week's picks: Game #1: Providence (3 point favorite) against Northeastern. - Providence was down 3 points at half-time but then scored the first 21 points in the 2nd half and ended up winning by 22. Game #2: Northern Illinois (2 point favorite) against Kansas St. - No. Illinois won by 5 in OT. Game #3: Arkansas Little-Rock (4.5 point favorite) against Appalachian St. - Arkansas LR won by 15. Game #4: UTEP (4.5 point favorite) against Pacific. UTEP ended up winning by 6. Game #5: San Diego (4 point favorite) against Loyola Chicago. - San Diego won 33! We went 5-0 with help in OT [which favors the home squad also.] Here's our possible next 3 picks tonite: CENTRAL FLORIDA 1 Sam Houston AUSTIN PEAY 3½ Evansville [if drops below 5] EASTERN KENTUCKY 5 Tenn. Martin Reactions and thoughts appreciated. No, I don't expect to end up 210-50-10, but I'd take 200-165. Naj [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] |
#2
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Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
What about youngstown St-2.5 against james madison?
I do like Central Florida -2 tonight. Ken |
#3
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Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
caveats:
When the visiting team was initially favored, but is now a Pick 'em, we do not bet. When the home team was favored, and is now Even, we do bet - again, because we feel HC advantage is being undervalued. added game: YSU -3 JMU. Naj |
#4
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Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
Important note:
Central Florida is not at home. That game is being played in Tucson, Arizona. |
#5
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Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
have you been using this general approach for 3-4 years as well..?
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#6
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Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
good catch, I avoided after checking yhaoo before betting.
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#7
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Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
WMMary also covered tonite, I bet that one but did not post as it was not on the first site I checked, but was on SIA.
Still have Peay and YSU remaining tonite. Naj |
#8
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Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
2-1 Tonite, Austin Peay missed by a half a point. 23-6-1.
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#9
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Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
Big card, 8 games tonite.
OSU -3 Tenn Emich -1.5 Temple -3 UAB -2 SD -4 St Mary's -3.5 Santa Clara - 2.5 Montana St -3 23-6-1 YTD games, I've been betting 2 units per. Naj |
#10
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Re: New CBB betting system I\'ve been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.
Ok State/Tenn is neutral court.
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