Value bet the river here?

[jackdaniels]

Villain lose and aggressive pre-flop and passive after flop after 30 hands or so.

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds</font>, MP2 raises</font>, 1 fold</font>, ]Hero 3-bets</font>, [i]1 fold[/i, BB calls, MP2 caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.66 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks,MP2 bets, Hero raises, BB calls, MP2 folds.

River: (12.66 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ???


Who value bets this rivar after villain calls 2 cold on turn?

[sean c]

I do. I would have raised the flop also.

[jackdaniels]

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I do. I would have raised the flop also.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would normally raise the flop but didn't want to scare off worse aces (AQ/AJ) and big PP. Also, the original raiser is a typical LAG, I put him on almost any ace and any PP.

You say the river bet for value is automatic? What is villain calling 2 more bets with pre-flop? And then cold calling two big bets on the turn? My spidey sense was screaming SET!!!!

[newhizzle]

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You say the river bet for value is automatic? What is villain calling 2 more bets with pre-flop? And then cold calling two big bets on the turn? My spidey sense was screaming SET!!!!

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i know 30 hands isnt much, but do you have any kind of read on how loose he is post-flop?
i mean is he the type to call a lot of bets with marginal values?
do you think hed slowplay a set all the way to the river?

if hes really passive maybe you could fold to a raise, i probly wouldnt, but i really think you have to bet, he may have you beat sometimes, but i think hes calling with worse hands a lot

[jackdaniels]

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[ QUOTE ]
You say the river bet for value is automatic? What is villain calling 2 more bets with pre-flop? And then cold calling two big bets on the turn? My spidey sense was screaming SET!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

i know 30 hands isnt much, but do you have any kind of read on how loose he is post-flop?
i mean is he the type to call a lot of bets with marginal values?
do you think hed slowplay a set all the way to the river?

if hes really passive maybe you could fold to a raise, i probly wouldnt, but i really think you have to bet, he may have you beat sometimes, but i think hes calling with worse hands a lot

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He is fairly passive, I could see him having any mid pair, any big ace also but no big pair (JJ-AA) based on his pre flop call (and not cap). Ofcourse, like you said, 30 hands isn't much.

I like what you said about him having me beat here sometimes but often calling with a second best hand.

[ QUOTE ]
I would normally raise the flop but didn't want to scare off worse aces (AQ/AJ) and big PP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I raelly don't like this logic. The pot is big by the flop, fight for it! Most SS players can't lay down AQ/AJ here and they probably shouldn't because the pot is pretty large. They'll call and you'll gain a ton of value. I don't think it's about waiting for the turn to protect your hand here either, as this board is not scary in any way.

Your flop slowplay may have cost you the pot as this guy made his raggedy 2 pair on the turn (not to be too results oriented, but I really think it's situations exactly like this one that are why you want to raise the flop in a spot like this.)

[ QUOTE ]
You say the river bet for value is automatic? What is villain calling 2 more bets with pre-flop? And then cold calling two big bets on the turn? My spidey sense was screaming SET!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that the times this guy calls you with something like AQ or AJ will far outnumber the times that this guy has a set.

He calls 2 more with A6 os from BB out of position, I think he calls this flop with top pair. I think your raise on the flop wouldn't have pushed him out.

If I look at the hand, I think this play is not too bad. The flop is completely drawless and we have a guy who capped preflop betting into us, his hand range for capping only beats us with AA, which there is only one combination of. He draws with us with AK 6 times, but he also loses with KK, QQ, AQs and JJ. If we raise here after re-raising him preflop he may get rid of KK, QQ, JJ but may only call with AQs. If we just call this flop we can bring BB along and also get MP2 to hopefully keep betting this for us.

I am not sure if my thinking is correct here, but we have the best hand almost 100% of the time here on the flop with not much chance for our opponents to improve (2/3 outs). IF Mp2 will continue to bet this on the turn with KK / QQ etc and he has only 2 outs of equity, (approximately 4.5% of equity) the pot is currently 6.25BB and if you and BB call the flop it will be 7.75BB. He has only 0.4BB in equity but may put 2BB in on the turn.

I am not sure if my thinking is correct here, but surely we can lose 0.4BB of equity if our MP2 will bet the turn here more than 20% of the time?

Am I right here or way off?

I just read this again, I forget that if we raise here we increase our equity by increasing the size of the pot. If BB is calling with Ax and has 3 outs, then for the 3SB that are put in from our raise we have an increase of about 1.8SB(90% of 2 SB) in equity which may far superior than the 1.9SB (95% of 1BB on the turn) that we get IF MP2 bets out the turn. (IF he doesn't bet out the turn and we are still ahead we can bet and if we are in the same situation we gain 1.9BB (90% of 2BB))

This is only correct if BB is going to call this flop and turn. Is my way of thinking correct as I wouldn't want to continue using an insane method :S.

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He calls 2 more with A6 os from BB out of position, I think he calls this flop with top pair. I think your raise on the flop wouldn't have pushed him out.

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Who knows? Pushing him out is a benefit but most importantly you put him in a spot where it he has to make a big mistake to stay in the hand. Calling 1 with A6o and that kind of pf action is probably not good but not incredibly terrible, calling 2 is real bad. Also, sometimes bad players play weird in the BB. Who knows?

Results aside I still think the flop raise is correct.

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his hand range for capping only beats us with AA, which there is only one combination of. He draws with us with AK 6 times, but he also loses with KK, QQ, AQs and JJ.

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Exactly. You have the best hand and the pot is big. You want to win this pot right now if you can. Raise raise raise!

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If we raise here after re-raising him preflop he may get rid of KK, QQ, JJ but may only call with AQs.

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Good! I don't want to "keep my customers" here with a measly top pair hand. I want to put my bad loose opponents in a spot to make big mistakes or alternatively just pick up the pot right here. That's ok.

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If we just call this flop we can bring BB along and also get MP2 to hopefully keep betting this for us.

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Why do you want this? I think you gain a whole lot more value just by raising this flop. I like your combinatorial analysis and I'd do my own but I gotta run. If I have time later I will address that part of your post but it will take a little time to type that up.

[damaniac]

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He calls 2 more with A6 os from BB out of position, I think he calls this flop with top pair. I think your raise on the flop wouldn't have pushed him out.

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No, he wouldn't have folded, but he would have been incorrect to call, meaning you profit. Instead, failing to raise gave him correct odds to call on a 3-outer. Normally you are happy to string someone along when you dominate them. Not however when they are getting good odds to call.