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#1
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Lets say two very similar players sit down and play heads up limit poker against each other. Lets say one of them should on average make .1BB/100 hands off the other. How long would you expect it to take for this true win rate to become apparent? This is Heads Up Limit Hold'em.
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#2
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The key variable is the standard deviation. It's hard to guess without knowing the styles of the players, but say it's 10 BB/100 hands. In that case, after a million hands, the better player is expected to be up by 1,000 BB, with a standard deviation of 1,000 BB. There's about 5 chances in 6 that he's ahead.
After 4 million hands, the better player is expected to be up 4,000 BB, with a standard deviation of 2,000. Two standard deviations is conventionally considered to be significant; so I guess that's a reasonable answer. |
#3
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right, so I guess my actually question was what is an average standard deviation given solid players.
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#4
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[ QUOTE ]
The key variable is the standard deviation. It's hard to guess without knowing the styles of the players, but say it's 10 BB/100 hands. In that case, after a million hands, the better player is expected to be up by 1,000 BB, with a standard deviation of 1,000 BB. There's about 5 chances in 6 that he's ahead. After 4 million hands, the better player is expected to be up 4,000 BB, with a standard deviation of 2,000. Two standard deviations is conventionally considered to be significant; so I guess that's a reasonable answer. [/ QUOTE ] can you explain to me real quick how you used a standard deviation of 10BB/100 to acheive a standard deviation of 1,000 over 1 million hands? |
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