River bet?

pudley4 · #1 12-29-2002, 12:51 AM

Online loose-passive 1/2

I'm in CO with 9 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]

4 callers to me, I raise, Button folds, both blinds and all callers call. 7 to the flop for 14 sb.

Flop:

A [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]

Checked to me, I bet. SB calls, everyone folds. 2 to the turn for 16 sb.

Turn: 6 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] (A [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] )

Check, bet, call. 10 BB in the pot.

River: 2 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] (A [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] )

Checked to me - check or bet?

Ray Zee · #2 12-29-2002, 01:03 AM

bet it. you will lose alot of times to a bigger pair or a small ace but who cares. there are many more hands he could have and still pay off on the end.

AceHigh · #3 12-29-2002, 02:46 PM

"you will lose alot of times to a bigger pair or a small ace but who cares."

I thought Sklansky states in TOP that you should only bet, heads up, on the river if you think you will win 55% of the time.

Should you bet here if you think you will lose over 1/2 the time? Or, are you saying you will lose a lot, but not over 1/2 the time?

Ulysses · #4 12-29-2002, 02:10 AM

Bet, unless SB is very tricky.

I bet because hands like 34s, K6s and 77 will be out there to call me down more times than a small Ace. I've been called down in this situation many times by someone with as little as King high.

Rich P. · #5 12-29-2002, 02:42 AM

The first question I think you must ask is what you think your opponent's possible hands are. To determine this first question, you have to consider what your opponent thinks you have. It is very likely that your opponent has put you on trip aces or a big pair. Knowing this you have to consider that your opponent is on a hand that at least has the potential to beat you.

Knowing this, we now consider the possible hands. After the flop, for him to call you after you bet, he most likely either has trips himself or a hand likely to beat trips, such as a flush draw, and, on further observation, a straight draw is also possible. Remember, you raised in the cut-off position, so your raise would have trapped him. A low-limit player could easily hold 4-2 in this situtation.

Knowing this we will have to say that the most likely hands your opponent may have are either a straight draw or a flush draw. Trips is also possible but less likely, because he never raised you. It is unlikely he holds over cards or has simply paired the board, because the board cards are pretty small. He could have a big pair and is hoping his is higher than yours.

Notice, in all the most possible situations you lose by betting on the end. If he missed a flush draw, you only break even because he doesn't call. At some of times he does have a better hand then you, he raises you; so some of the time you lose two bets.

The possible situations where you win an extra bet is where he calls with only overcards or a smaller pair than yours. It is unlikely he would call you on the river with these hands, because he is unlikely to call to the river with either one of those hands.

Therefore, your bet on the river loses you money.

Dynasty · #6 12-29-2002, 02:48 AM

It's thinking like that which costs most low-limit players bet after bet.

Bet the river. Many worse hands will call.

Ulysses · #7 12-29-2002, 03:43 AM

A low-limit player could easily hold 4-2 in this situtation.

It is unlikely he holds over cards or has simply paired the board, because the board cards are pretty small.

You've played enough low limit to know that 4-2 is a possible holding, yet discount the possibility of pairing small cards on the board?

It is unlikely he would call you on the river with these hands, because he is unlikely to call to the river with either one of those hands.

Your reason he is unlikely to call is "because he is unlikely to call." Nice. The 4-2 you thought the opponent might have is exactly the kind of hand that will call on the river when the 2 hits.

Pat · #8 12-29-2002, 08:42 PM

I would copy your post and put it on the Mid-,High-Stakes board. But for a LL game, you're giving WAY too much credit to the caller. As an earlier post stated, many LL players will call with as little as K-high in this situation(it surprises me every time, but it happens). I see no reason not to bet the river in this situation.

PokerPrince · #9 12-29-2002, 08:41 AM

Bet your hand here for value. I know sometimes in low limit poker the other players don't let you know where they're at so it can cloud your decision-making. There are more losing hands here that he can call you with than hands that beat you.

PokerPrince

Robk · #10 12-29-2002, 12:23 PM

Pudley, this is a situation where in a low limit game I would like to have some player knowledge. I think most LL players would put in some action on their own with an A here, most likely by betting the flop. Even fish can recognize that it's unlikely for you to have an ace given that there are two on the board and they have one. I think the most likely reason for the call, call sequence you saw was that he has a piece of the board and is in "either he's got a big ace or he's got nothing" mentality. A LL fish online has seen so many people bet QJo in this situation that he'll call with anything. So my default play is to bet. But I have played against some players who are so passive that I would check the turn if I didn't spike a 9. It helps to know who these guys are. [img]/forums/images/icons/wink.gif[/img]