PLO8, Flop play

#1 09-18-2005, 10:10 PM

Long time lurker, first time poster. I've always found the advice to here to be top notch, and I'd like some advice on this situation I ran into.

PLO8 .50-$1

Hero has A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] from the cutoff. I open limp, button calls, blinds call/check.

Flop comes 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Blinds check, I bet the pot, $4, button repots to $16, blinds fold, back to me.

Any advice?

Wintermute · #2 09-18-2005, 11:03 PM

I'd shove. Even against A3h, only if his sidecards are a rare combination will you be in bad shape (and even then, no worse than 2:1). More often, even against A3h, you'll be about even (maybe even well ahead), and there are many weaker hands that will make this play against you.

Chamonyx · #3 09-19-2005, 02:50 PM

Maybe this has something to do with your 2.57 sigma down-swing?

A3h is even money to make the flush and get 3 or 4/4. For you to scoop you have to a) dodge a heart and b) see a non-heart A,3 or 6 (7 outs, but probably 6 assuming one of his A3 is not a heart).

Do you really want to get it all in on the flop here? Why not slow down till the turn when you can then give him the chance to make an incorect call if you hit?

Wintermute · #4 09-19-2005, 03:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
A3h is even money to make the flush.

[/ QUOTE ]
Did you really just write that? Tell me you're not that stupid.

Go spend some time at 2dimes studying hand values, you obviously do not understand fundamental probabilies of poker.

Chamonyx · #5 09-19-2005, 03:11 PM

OK then 40% with 2 cards to come. And your point is....?

Wintermute · #6 09-19-2005, 03:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
OK then 40% with 2 cards to come. And your point is....?

[/ QUOTE ]
Sigh. Wrong again. ~2:1 is correct, not 3:2. Aside from this positively awful mathematical error, your entire post is absolutely idiotic and positively wrong. We are all stupider for having read it. May God have mercy upon your soul.

Wintermute · #7 09-19-2005, 03:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why not slow down till the turn when you can then give him the chance to make an incorect call if you hit?

[/ QUOTE ]
If you don't see why this is exactly wrong, don't play PLO8 until you do.

gergery · #8 09-19-2005, 08:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why not slow down till the turn when you can then give him the chance to make an incorect call if you hit?

[/ QUOTE ]
If you don't see why this is exactly wrong, don't play PLO8 until you do.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ribbo, is that you?

gergery · #9 09-19-2005, 03:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe this has something to do with your 2.57 sigma down-swing?

A3h is even money to make the flush and get 3 or 4/4. For you to scoop you have to a) dodge a heart and b) see a non-heart A,3 or 6 (7 outs, but probably 6 assuming one of his A3 is not a heart).

Do you really want to get it all in on the flop here? Why not slow down till the turn when you can then give him the chance to make an incorect call if you hit?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is fundamentally very incorrect thinking.

You want to be putting money in when you have an equity advantage vs. an opponents range of hands. Nut low with backup protection, plus top pair with a 9+out straightwrap is very strong heads up, and is clearly worth going to war with. It really is not a close decision at all.

--greg

Chamonyx · #10 09-19-2005, 03:57 PM

Thanks, Greg, for the more illuminating reply.

On the face of it, it is a great hand against a wide range of playable hands - but do you still feel as good about it when someone plays it right back at you? What is your equity against hands that are strong enough to pot it back?