Folding the nut flush with outs

[spydog]

Villian is a TAG (22/17/2 over 600 hands). No unusual history between us.

Is this crazy or expert?

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (10.00 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (8.00 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, Hero folds......

[krishanleong]

really really aweful I think. Just get to showdown.

Krishan

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
really really aweful I think. Just get to showdown.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

The TAG sees the following, which is more important to what I am holding:

1) My preflop raise
2) My flop bet/3-bet despite him showing considerable preflop and flop strength.
3) My turn bet/3-bet
4) A paired board
5) A 3-flush board

Yet, he still caps? And this is a really really awful fold?

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
really really aweful I think. Just get to showdown.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

The TAG sees the following, which is more important to what I am holding:

1) My preflop raise
2) My flop bet/3-bet despite him showing considerable preflop and flop strength.
3) My turn bet/3-bet
4) A paired board
5) A 3-flush board

Yet, he still caps? And this is a really really awful fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

I've thought about it more and I think it's okay. Not an aweful fold, I just think a hand of this strength needs to go to showdown so maybe you should have slowed down earlier. But when you look at it that way, there isn't really a safe spot to slowdown.

Krishan

So, you're saying he definitely has AA? That's the only hand he could have that beats you.

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
So, you're saying he definitely has AA? That's the only hand he could have that beats you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummm...TT plays this the same 80% of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So, you're saying he definitely has AA? That's the only hand he could have that beats you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummm...TT plays this the same 80% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
I beg to differ considering his flop raise.

[Danenania]

[ QUOTE ]
So, you're saying he definitely has AA? That's the only hand he could have that beats you.

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of you guys like to say stuff like this. First of all, he could definitely have TT. Every heard of a fastplay? There is only one player behind the tag so it's not like he really makes any extra by just calling. In fact, I'd venture that he is MORE likely to have TT than AA by a significant margin giving the flop call/turn raise. I think AA normally caps this flop. But that's not my point. My point is: yes, TT and AA are the only hands that beat him. But these are also the ONLY hands that the tag could hold given the action. Look at the board. Look at hero's hand. Look at the villain's numbers. Note one other hand that's even close to logical for him to play this way.

Sometimes it's simply possible to narrow somebody down to a very narrow range. Not through tunnel vision, through handreading. If you ignore this information just because "that's the only hand he could have that beats you" then you are costing yourself money plain and simple.

[Stefan_K]

hmm intressting.. the pot is very big so i would pray to see ATs and call down (and if you are behind you still have outs [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

Curious why bet-3bet insteed of checkrais?

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
hmm intressting.. the pot is very big so i would pray to see ATs and call down

Curious why bet-3bet insteed of checkrais?

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet/3-bet because I think it's the best way to get AK to fold on the turn. Most TAGs will not lay down to a flop CR on a paired board with Ace hi. They normally call it down. I think bet/3-betting is the only way I can win this hand unimproved.