Weak Overcard Outs-Clearing

[W. Deranged]

Hey folks,

I was playing some 3/6 kill against some 2+2ers yesterday and had the great satisfaction of making one of those questionable outs clearing raises that works out perfectly and actually did promote my hand to a winner.

Which got me thinking about playing suspect overcards on draw heavy boards and the conditions necessary for making an outs clearing raise with weak overcards.

So I've got some poll questions for y'all. In all of these assume that:

1. SB if a half-thinking but annoying donk who calls down way to much and likes to fold the river a lot.

2. The player immediately to your left (wherever you are) is a solid 2+2er.

Have at it! I recommend everyone vote before reading/posting replies.

Note: #1 is kind of a "warm-up." It's more interesting, though, if the board is only two-tone and you don't have any backdoors.

[Derek in NYC]

These seem very straightforward. #1 and #2 are clear raises given your flush draws and overs. Im surprised to see people saying call with #3. I fold this if the 3-bettor is anything near a decent player.

Edited to add: I just noticed the gutshot here and the fact that this was a 5-handed game. My bad. I'd probably raise the gutshot if I thought I could get the button to fold, otherwise, I call and hope I can get in cheaply.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
T Im surprised to see people saying call with #3. I fold this if the 3-bettor is anything near a decent player.

Edited to add: I just noticed the gutshot here and the fact that this was a 5-handed game. My bad. I'd probably raise the gutshot if I thought I could get the button to fold, otherwise, I call and hope I can get in cheaply.

[/ QUOTE ]

...and so the subtlety emerges...

#1 and #2 are obvious raises in my opinion. I'm surprised how many votes for calls there are for #2. I'd like to see an argument there.

#3 is the interesting one, largely because I think it is very game/player dependent. This is the one I'm really interested in with the poll.

[Moneyline]

IMO the flops in these hands are a lot worse than they first appear. No offense meant to OP, but this probably makes them bad candidates to determine what you should typically do with overcards. Anyway, the reason I think they are bad for your hand is because they are as coordinated as a non-monotone flop can get. This makes it much more likely than usual for you to lose when you catch a pair. On flops like this I think you need a much better hand than normal to win at showdown.

This isn't a problem for hand one, because with all your nut outs you will have a much better hand than usual if you catch a good card. In hand 2, however, your draws are far less appealing. Spiking a queen here will win you less than usual because of the coordinated board. Spiking a T or 9 will win you even less because A) you're very unlikely to get paid off by a worse hand with 4 to a straight staring your opponents in the face, and B) you often won't have the best hand when you catch a T. The only real "concealed" draw you have is a rather unlikely backdoor flush.

I think the pot is too big to fold on the flop, but I also think that your draws are too weak to merit a raise because on this board you'll often run into straights, flushes, and suited connectors that flopped 2 pair.

[W. Deranged]

Moneyline...

Good points. FWIW, I picked this flop in particularly because I think it has a lot of interesting things going on. The polls really are not about "what to do with overcards." I'm most interested in how everything (particularly the nature of the players in the pot and board texture) affect the decision.

[W. Deranged]

I really would like to here some analyses on hand #2 and #3. Fair amount of divergence of opinion...

[Two_Slick]

[ QUOTE ]
I really would like to here some analyses on hand #2 and #3. Fair amount of divergence of opinion...

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I just went back and re-read it and when I voted I missed your description of player #2. I suppose we're raising here expecting him to fold to agression on the river and folding if he comes back at us (if we don't improve).

Against an unknown I think I'm just calling here and folding the turn UI. Is that too weak?

EDIT: I missed the gutshot in #3 too... jeez I'm out of it today. I'm not folding in #3 with the gutshot + overs.

[Two_Slick]

I don't think you can raise #3 though. The button will be getting 5 to 1 to call and would be correct to call with many of the hands he would 3-bet. Too many draws for me to fold though. Hand #3 is a tougher spot for sure.

[dcarlc]

1) I am calling. He basicly called 3 cold in SB, I think he flops a set, maybe has pocket 9's with [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], I don't think you win this hand with out improving.

2) Raise, If 2+2er has big pocket pair or AK-AQ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]you will know. SB is betting his pair with a draw every time being the annoying Donk that he is.

3) I fold, If button has a hand your got a knife in a gun fight. I would just move on, I don't think it pays for the times the button has a real hand and I think the blind is not going anywhere, don't think he is bluffing into that strength. again he called 3 bets preflop.

[Two_Slick]

[ QUOTE ]
1) I am calling. He basicly called 3 cold in SB, I think he flops a set, maybe has pocket 9's with , I don't think you win this hand with out improving.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're giving the donk way too much credit for a hand here. I put him on having 2 cards [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]