Turn - What thinkest thou?

QTip · #1 11-28-2005, 01:16 PM

PFR'r is really tight.

Flop bettor is unknown.

MP is terrible playing like 80% of hands.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, SB raises, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG+2 calls, MP3 folds, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG+2 folds, Hero ?

krimson · #2 11-28-2005, 01:21 PM

I think I just continue to call here. SB raising pre-flop but just c/c'ing the flop makes me think he may be behind with a big pair, and I don't want to give him a reason to fold.

As well, our hand relative to the BB is very questionable and I don't want to start putting in lots of big bets. It would suck to get 3-bet here since we likely have a lot of outs to split this pot vs something like AT, and don't necessarily want to fold yet.

winky51 · #3 11-28-2005, 01:28 PM

I think I would raise being the button.

1. You are behind because this guy is not betting a draw in most cases with the ace. He is betting the ace.

2. A raise will get you off cheap if he has a good pair. He will probably reraise you here and you can call for one more and 2 pair or fold. I probably would fold unless pot odds counted for my 3 outer.

3. If he does just call and checks you can bet the turn and get a free showdown. Thats cheaper than call call call. If the BB has any skill he might think you are on the flush draw trying to get a free card. Thats why I would think he reraises. Also he will reraise with 2 pair making it safe for you to toss your ace crap away.

damaniac · #4 11-28-2005, 01:36 PM

I think call, intending to call a river bet unless SB suddenly wakes up. SB has a big pair and almost certainly no A, so no need to raise and force him out. Bettor could have a wide range given our limited knowledge of him, but I'd guess he has an A most of the time. We're splitting with A8 and worse, and have counterfeitting outs against better aces, but we can't beat any other ace, even if we hit a 3 on the river.

We're getting 4.5:1 to see showdown (assuming SB just folds the turn without an A, a likely act). Since we're splitting at best, we're spending 2 bets to win 3.5 bets in profit, so we need to be splitting 1/3 of the time?

His range is probably any A at this point, so that gives us 5 full combos we split with, 4 we lose to now but sometimes split with (AK-AT, and he raises many preflop I assume), then lesser combos of A9/A4/A3 which we lose to or split with the A3. Maybe subtract a bit for when SB is being tricky with a big hand, but we definetly should have enough equity to call down.

jedi · #5 11-28-2005, 03:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think I would raise being the button.

1. You are behind because this guy is not betting a draw in most cases with the ace. He is betting the ace.

2. A raise will get you off cheap if he has a good pair. He will probably reraise you here and you can call for one more and 2 pair or fold. I probably would fold unless pot odds counted for my 3 outer.

3. If he does just call and checks you can bet the turn and get a free showdown. Thats cheaper than call call call. If the BB has any skill he might think you are on the flush draw trying to get a free card. Thats why I would think he reraises. Also he will reraise with 2 pair making it safe for you to toss your ace crap away.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you please explain this?

1) You're behind, but then why raise the turn? Do you think villain puts you on a four?

2) If he has a good pair, it will get SB off cheap. SB will correctly read one of you for a 4 or an Ace and fold his KK-TT hand. BB being unknown might have neither, may even have something crappy like K9.

3) If he has A9 two pair, then you can get away from it, but if he's reraising with A8 "two pair" then it's a disaster to fold in this pot. Why would hero want a free card on the turn? I think this logic only applies to flop play.

mdob · #6 11-28-2005, 01:36 PM

Looks like a call. I'm not sure what hands we'd want to raise against. Neither would fold an A or call with anything less*. Folding seems silly as we have a very good shot at splitting this pot now. That leaves calling, which looks good to me.

* OK, a flush draw would call, but that seems unlikely with the turn bet and a raise would knock out a big pair from SB, netting us the same 2 bets in the pot, but making it more expensive for us to get them.

McGahee · #7 11-28-2005, 01:39 PM

I think raising would suck given that SB likely has KK-TT. I would call with the intention of counterfieting all kickers on the river.

BWebb · #8 11-28-2005, 01:57 PM

To all those in the call camp, is it really worth risking 2 BBs to win 4 BBs with a hand this marginal?

Aces McGee · #9 11-28-2005, 01:58 PM

I'm glad someone finally mentioned the possibility of folding. This is a lot closer to a fold than a raise.

-McGee

damaniac · #10 11-28-2005, 02:00 PM

I agree, but I think absent a read on villain's aggression and play other than being uber-loose, I think calling is pretty far ahead of folding unless my math in the above post was off. We're already splitting like half the time assuming any A, and will split considerably more than that by the river. Some little aces may not be bet, but then again some better ones would have been raised preflop much of the time. I guess I didn't account for sets either.