3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis

jason_t · #1 09-05-2005, 01:43 PM

Michael is the Button and knows that I am the BB.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, CO calls, Button raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (9.33 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, CO folds, Button calls.

Turn: (5.66 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero

Surfbullet · #2 09-05-2005, 01:46 PM

I'd bet the turn. He'd call the flop with any broadway gutshot, and may have peeled with a K hoping you'd give up with a PP? I don't know much about how he plays, but since he knows you are TAG you'd take a stab on the flop with any PP to protect your hand often, but he might give you credit if you continue the turn...

Surf

disjunction · #3 09-05-2005, 02:00 PM

Ah, you've reached river play and it's one street early!

I don't see a bet getting him to fold a better hand, and the only justification for that line is if you see yourself making additional profit if he raises 55. Too risky for me.

Against his range, how often are you ahead? More than 25%? If he's one of those 30/20 people, I go ahead and call down, but I'm a station me.

disjunction · #4 09-05-2005, 11:47 PM

Whoops, I just reread this, I said "reraise 55" meaning "random underpair". It just so happens 55 is a set. So change what I said to 66.

DeathDonkey · #5 09-05-2005, 02:03 PM

Bet. I can see him folding a king and if you check his QJ QT JT whatever can take it away from you. If he raises its a pretty easy fold.

-DeathDonkey

partygirluk · #6 09-05-2005, 02:29 PM

Checkraise.

Danenania · #7 09-05-2005, 02:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Checkraise.

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This is interesting but I think the problem is that he will usually take a free card with his gutshot draws, when he would have folded them. However if he will really fold an Ace it might be worthwhile.

An alternate idea would be to bet, and if called checkraise the river.

I don't know enough about MD's game to say whether either of these would be effective. I do know he will be aware of the possibility of a TAG playing 88-QQ in this manner, so it isn't like he will be instamucking AJ. In general I assume that people are not capable of folding hands and this has served me well, so I would not try something like this without an extraordinary read.

Danenania · #8 09-05-2005, 02:48 PM

Bet. Fold to a raise and check/fold river if he calls. His range of hands is too wide to check/fold. Plus you put him in a tricky position if he has something like KT.

krishanleong · #9 09-05-2005, 09:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Bet. Fold to a raise and check/fold river if he calls.

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I never use this line. I don't really understand it. Are we betting because we hope he will fold? Do we hope he is on a draw and won't bet a busted draw on the river? It seems to be used when we are up against an unfavorable range. Can you talk about it a bit more?

Krishan

Danenania · #10 09-05-2005, 11:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet. Fold to a raise and check/fold river if he calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never use this line. I don't really understand it. Are we betting because we hope he will fold? Do we hope he is on a draw and won't bet a busted draw on the river? It seems to be used when we are up against an unfavorable range. Can you talk about it a bit more?

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I would definitely be looking for a fold with a bet. As I see it the only hands he can have here are a pair of A's, a pair of K's, a gutshot with JT/QJ/QT, and also maybe a 5 with 65s/75s (not sure if he would iso raise with those). Oh and 55. I haven't run twodimes or anything, but my feeling is against those hands we are in good enough shape that we shouldn't simply check/fold (since we'll often be giving him free draws to up to 7 outs, and he may semibluff sometimes).

Check/calling also seems troublesome because we are still giving the free draws, and when he does bet it means we are drawing to 2 outs a very large percentage of the time.

That leaves betting. Betting will make him fold his gutshots and also put him in a difficult situation with his K's. I'm not sure if MD specifically would fold a K here but I know many tags would occasionally, especially a weaker one like K6s. Betting will also let us see a river most of the time as it is not very likely that he has better than one pair here so we will hardly ever face a raise. So we still get a shot at our two outer.

Of course if he calls a turn bet we are beat nearly 100% of the time, if not more, so there is no reason to put more money in barring improvement.