Raised family pot, JJ

soko · #1 11-02-2005, 01:38 PM

You can probally tell from the PF action that it's a loose table, looking for general advice, should I fear a check raise on the turn enough to not bet? I went for overcalls on the river.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) [url:http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter]FTR converter on zerodivide.cx[/url]

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, CO calls, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (8 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, MP1 calls, Hero raises, CO folds, Button folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 3-bets, MP1 calls, Hero caps, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (18.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks.

River: (18.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+2 folds.

Final Pot: 20.25 BB

BigBrother · #2 11-02-2005, 02:45 PM

I bet this turn. 4 opps and you need to charge a lone A, K, or Qd to draw in this large pot. No free cards in huge pots!

After you cap the flop, if you are c/r'd on the turn it at least tells you something. What would your villain c/r'ing you with on the turn here? Quite possibly a a FD, sure, but make him prove it (and some passives won't raise a flush when the board pairs anyway).

Raise the river. If you were good enough to cap the flop, you are good enough to raise the river. You are only beat by an 8 (very unlikely given the flop action unles he 3-bet with 2pr), an overpair (very unlikely given the pf limp), or TT (oh well).

Edit: OK since you have 4 opps on the river I like going for overcalls. But bet that turn.

AaronS · #3 11-02-2005, 02:47 PM

Interesting hand... I like your line. With 4 opponents putting in 4 bets on that flop, it's hard to imagine someone didn't turn a flush or trips. I think the free card is good here, b/c you have 4 outs against a flush, and 2 against trip 8's. I also like the river call, to get the flushes to make a desperate call in this large pot.

Nick C · #4 11-02-2005, 04:01 PM

I'm not used to tables that are this loose anymore, but I sure don't like that turn card very much. Aside from that, UTG+2 likes his hand enough on the flop that I'm somewhat concerned that he might have flopped a set.

Anyway, the turn card is scary enough card that some people might now actually fold their A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], which is good for you if you happen to be ahead and the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] isn't out there anyway.

I'm not really sure what you should do. I would probably bet, pretty much expecting to get checkraised.

lautzutao · #5 11-02-2005, 04:03 PM

You have to raise that river. I also think betting the turn is correct. You can't give a free card to someone with 1 diamond. Risk the Check Raise.

As far as the overcalls, you should only be doing this when you possibly fear a better hand. I'd say the likelihood of you being best here is just about guaranteed. Tables this loose are going to call 2 bets if they're acting after you, so raise it up.

Nick C · #6 11-02-2005, 04:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
As far as the overcalls, you should only be doing this when you possibly fear a better hand. I'd say the likelihood of you being best here is just about guaranteed.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not just about guaranteed. MP1 may have whiffed on a turn checkraise, or he may have worried that his turned trips were no good yet since there was a 3-flush on the board.

lautzutao · #7 11-02-2005, 05:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As far as the overcalls, you should only be doing this when you possibly fear a better hand. I'd say the likelihood of you being best here is just about guaranteed.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not just about guaranteed. MP1 may have whiffed on a turn checkraise, or he may have worried that his turned trips were no good yet since there was a 3-flush on the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you don't want to raise because you fear the 8 or TT...? Seems a little MUBSy doesn't it? Maybe the overcall route is correct, but certainly not because villian's betting out with a cinch.

Nick C · #8 11-02-2005, 05:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As far as the overcalls, you should only be doing this when you possibly fear a better hand. I'd say the likelihood of you being best here is just about guaranteed.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not just about guaranteed. MP1 may have whiffed on a turn checkraise, or he may have worried that his turned trips were no good yet since there was a 3-flush on the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you don't want to raise because you fear the 8 or TT...? Seems a little MUBSy doesn't it? Maybe the overcall route is correct, but certainly not because villian's betting out with a cinch.

[/ QUOTE ]

TT doesn't seem all that likely to me, though there is some chance Villain didn't raise with it preflop and then slowplayed the flop.

I'm more worried about an 8. I'm certainly not saying Villain definitely has quads, but it's possible. There are 44 available combinations of hands that contain an 8. I doubt Villain is playing all of those combinations, but at a table this loose, I wouldn't be surprised if he's playing about half of them. A8, K8, and 98 is 12 combos; throw in some some suited one- and two-gappers and Q8s and 87o and we're up to about 20 combos.

Anyway, though, once the turn checks through, Villain might bet out on the river with a lot of different full houses, so I think there's a good chance we're best. But I like going for overcalls here, even though we didn't get any this time.

W. Deranged · #9 11-02-2005, 05:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As far as the overcalls, you should only be doing this when you possibly fear a better hand. I'd say the likelihood of you being best here is just about guaranteed.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not just about guaranteed. MP1 may have whiffed on a turn checkraise, or he may have worried that his turned trips were no good yet since there was a 3-flush on the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you don't want to raise because you fear the 8 or TT...? Seems a little MUBSy doesn't it? Maybe the overcall route is correct, but certainly not because villian's betting out with a cinch.

[/ QUOTE ]

TT doesn't seem all that likely to me, though there is some chance Villain didn't raise with it preflop and then slowplayed the flop.

I'm more worried about an 8. I'm certainly not saying Villain definitely has quads, but it's possible. There are 44 available combinations of hands that contain an 8. I doubt Villain is playing all of those combinations, but at a table this loose, I wouldn't be surprised if he's playing about half of them. A8, K8, and 98 is 12 combos; throw in some some suited one- and two-gappers and Q8s and 87o and we're up to about 20 combos.

Anyway, though, once the turn checks through, Villain might bet out on the river with a lot of different full houses, so I think there's a good chance we're best. But I like going for overcalls here, even though we didn't get any this time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nick,

I think that in general because the pot is multiway, it's huge, and there are plenty of obvious hands our opponents behind us almost have to (in their minds) call two cold with (basically an T, maybe a good flush, many pairs, and so on), the extra value we are going to get out of a raise in my opinion more than compensates the loss from when we're up against quads. In general, we are risking 3 BB to win something like 5 on average, and I think we are ahead enough to do this. If we go for overcalls, we risk a big more than 1 to maybe win 3 BB, meaning we have to be ahead less often, but we lose value when we miss.

Imagine we can say we are ahead 75% of the time. In that case, our expectation on a raise (assuming we'll always get three-bet when behind) is going to be .75(5) - .25 (3) = 3 BB. Our expectation on a call is going to be .75 (3) -.25(1) = 2 BB. This is a fairly simplified (and stylized) approach, but I think it's a useful way to think about the problem.

crazygoose · #10 11-02-2005, 05:24 PM

You have to bet that turn. Villain could have T4 and you just got saved. Since the table is soo loose it doesnt gaurantee the flush draw. Bet/call a cr b/c you are getting odds to hit the full house. nice pot.