9Tsooted

MoDOH · #1 12-19-2004, 11:21 AM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

loose table, no reads...

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero calls, CO folds, Button folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 calls, Hero raises, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

River: (8.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls...

krishanleong · #2 12-19-2004, 01:11 PM

Seems bad to me.

On the flop, you have a very strong draw and some small %chance that you are ahead. Do UTG limpers bet into a field of 6 with a hand you are ahead of very often? The only draw here is a flush draw and you have that. So you decide to raise to force out everyone in between you and the raiser. I just call. You want lots of people in here.

On the turn, your given the chance for a free card with your weak hand. And you don't take it. I take it. There aren't enough players + small change you are ahead to make this for value.

And then you make your hand on the river and go for overcalls. The way you played this hand completely disguises the fact that you have a flush. Raise the river.

Krishan

smoore · #3 12-19-2004, 02:04 PM

I like the raise on the flop as the SB and BB may not check-call anyway. I don't like the bet on the turn, one of the reasons you raised on the flop is to get that free card. I raise the river because I'm ahead a good bit of the time. I think I have to call a 3bet on the river too.

MoDOH · #4 12-19-2004, 03:36 PM

On the river I go for the overcall because MP1 has been passive all the way but suddenly wakes up when a flushcard pops up? Since I have a very small flush I think that going for the overcall here is the best thing to do...

krishanleong · #5 12-19-2004, 04:59 PM

I don't know how to do an accurate Bayesean analysis. But since your betting pattern looks like a big ace,here are the hands that would lead into you on the river. Baby flush, trip 3s, a wheel, any two pair. I think your ahead enough here to raise. I'd need some analysis to show me I'm wrong here. (And I could be)

Krishan

Rudbaeck · #6 12-19-2004, 03:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Seems bad to me.

On the flop, you have a very strong draw and some small %chance that you are ahead. Do UTG limpers bet into a field of 6 with a hand you are ahead of very often? The only draw here is a flush draw and you have that. So you decide to raise to force out everyone in between you and the raiser. I just call. You want lots of people in here.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong and MoDoh's flop play is correct. If he calls going for overcalls he'll at the most get another 2sb into the pot. If he raises he will at the very least get 2 additional sb into the pot, as well as a decent shot at a free card.

His four flush alone will get there over 1/3rd of the time, the pair with the additional five outs means he has a huge overlay even with only two callers. Raising for value alone here would be correct, the free card makes it even juicier.

krishanleong · #7 12-19-2004, 04:56 PM

Not raising the flop is subtle. It's not only about overcalls. It's also about being able to raise the turn when you make your outs. That gets you two big bets instead of one. Also when you miss, you might be able to keep the people behind you in on the turn and build a bigger pot when you hit the river. Also, free cards don't always happen. 3-bets and stop and gos are not that uncommon at this limit. This hand isn't about getting lots of money in when you are behind and seeing a cheap river. It's about maximizing the value of a drawing hand over all streets.

Krishan

Rudbaeck · #8 12-19-2004, 05:15 PM

You can't both want to avoid the risk of not getting bets in if hero makes his hand and avoid the raise because a free card won't happen.

Hero doesn't mind being 3-bet on the flop either, then he can cap for value if the original caller stays in.

A better reason not to raise is if we have good reason to believe either of the limpers are going for a c/r so hero can 3-bet or cap when it comes back to him.

A stop and go isn't that fearsome because it's pretty likely that the 14 outs will need very little discounting on the turn.

krishanleong · #9 12-19-2004, 05:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You can't both want to avoid the risk of not getting bets in if hero makes his hand and avoid the raise because a free card won't happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain this further? I don't understand.

[ QUOTE ]
A stop and go isn't that fearsome because it's pretty likely that the 14 outs will need very little discounting on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree, It make little difference because Hero's pot equity is pretty big even on the turn. But if part of the reason you are raising the flop is for a free card, this has to be taken into account.

[ QUOTE ]
Hero doesn't mind being 3-bet on the flop either, then he can cap for value if the original caller stays in.

[/ QUOTE ]
I usually don't cap for value against 2 players with a flush draw. It's certainly not something I look forward to when I raise for a free card.

Krishan

Malcom Reynolds · #10 12-19-2004, 11:58 PM

So you decide to raise to force out everyone in between you and the raiser. I just call. You want lots of people in here.

With 14 outs, you may have as much as 51% equity making you a favourite in the hand if your outs are clean. The raise is for value. You would protect your hand here with just middle pair, plus there is a small chance that you already ahead. So raising here is both a value and a protection raise.