Time to make a move?

[HoldingFolding]

109MTT. BB is a rational, thinking player perhaps holding a weakish king...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (8 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

UTG+1 (t1033)
MP1 (t1160)
MP2 (t500)
Hero (t930)
Button (t1430)
SB (t770)
BB (t2247)
UTG (t1115)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t20, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t20, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t80) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t55</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t200</font> Hero ?????

[betgo]

Hero pushes with nut flush draw, overcard, and pair. You are usually slightly ahead versus a pair and way ahead against a lower flush draw. You have 29% against a set. You have push here. I don't consider this a move.

[Slow Play Ray]

Push or fold, tough call between the two...but I probably push.

This is early in the tournament, right?

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Push or fold, tough call between the two...but I probably push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you consider folding?

[Slow Play Ray]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Push or fold, tough call between the two...but I probably push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you consider folding?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because it is very early in the tournament, he could have absolutely anything, and I still have 43 BBs if I fold.

Is that too weak-tight??

*Edit* So if we're right and he has just a weak King, we are 51% to hit one of our outs. It's a marginally +EV play w/o even including fold equity, so like I said I probably call. But I still don't necessarily like risking my whole stack at this stage.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Because it is very early in the tournament, he could have absolutely anything, and I still have 43 BBs if I fold.

Is that too weak-tight??

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, definately.

[Slow Play Ray]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Because it is very early in the tournament, he could have absolutely anything, and I still have 43 BBs if I fold.

Is that too weak-tight??

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, definately.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're saying a coin-flip is a good risk at this point? Or is it a good push solely because of fold equity? If you *knew* he was going to call with a weak K, would you still push?

I would like more thoughts on this, as this is one of the biggest part of my MTT game that I struggle with.

I guess this all goes back to the "how much of an edge would you fold early in a tournament" question and the two philosophies surrounding it.

[HoldingFolding]

Calling is atrocious; what do you do if the turn blanks plus you probably have zero implied odds. I thought a sizeable raise might be more convincing than a push....

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
So if we're right and he has just a weak King, we are 51% to hit one of our outs. It's a marginally +EV play w/o even including fold equity, so like I said I probably call. But I still don't necessarily like risking my whole stack at this stage.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the read is right, and he has a weak K, we 51% to make the hand, just like you said.

But I disagree that this is margianlly +EV.

There is 335 in the pot, when the action gets back to us, and if we push and get called we will be betting 1345 to win 1680, which is 1.25-1.

If we allow for even 10% folding equity/he's bluffing equity, we are over a 60-40 edge getting 1:25-1 for all our chips.

I think that's a big enough edge to get all the chips involved especially early, as a bigger stack allows you to take more fish $$$ in the early going.

I think this is better than marginal spot.

Then again, I really like stiring the pot when the discussion is "thin edges". [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Regards,
Woodguy

[nightlyraver]

You are probably a coinflip in this situation. Against any King, you are 50/50. Against K9, you are still 45% to win. Even against AK, an unlikely holding, you are still 43% to win the hand. You are only a big dog against a set, but you still have a 30% shot. Given all the money in the pot compared to the stack sizes, you should be prepared to go to the felt with this hand, doing all you can to get Villian to fold. I'm probably moving in on this one and I don't really mind getting called. This is one of those situations where you can force your oponent to make a mistake. If he could see your cards, Villian would be correct to call with a hand like K3o, but he will probably throw that hand away in this case.