|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
River AQ
I have reads on everyone except the Villain who is unknown so this hand is essentially reeeaaaddddlleesssssss.
Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx Preflop: I am el Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">I raise</font>, SB calls, BB calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls. Flop: (12 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font> SB checks, BB checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">I bet</font>, SB folds, BB calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls. Turn: (8 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> BB checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">I raise</font>, BB folds, MP2 folds, CO calls. River: (12 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, I go and is it close? |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: River AQ
raise it. for him to bet donking his draw on the turn makes no sense whatsoever.
|
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: River AQ
I don't think its close at all. Raise that mo'fo
Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: River AQ
getting double donked blows, I think the pussy in me just calls the river. though raising it is probably the smart play
|
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: River AQ
[ QUOTE ]
getting double donked blows, I think the pussy in me just calls the river. though raising it is probably the smart play [/ QUOTE ] cause he has a set of twos or sixes? Which are the only hands I can think he might have, that we wouldn't want to three bet. we would have heard from TT or QQ much earlier No way, much more likely he has a hand we beat. Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: River AQ
well, I did say the pussy in me calls, I didn't say that is was neccessarily the right play
|
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: River AQ
Eff her!
|
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Re: River AQ
Weird. The only hand I can think of that improved on both the turn and river that you still beat is AT.
Still, that makes more sense than a hand like Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], I guess (or KJ or K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]). Who knows what Villain has, really. Pocket 2's, maybe. I can see myself raising or calling, depending on my mood. |
#9
|
|||
|
|||
Re: River AQ
There are 3 things to consider here, and 2 of them lead me to call, 1 of them leads me to raise:
1) Josh.'s (sthief's) theory of river donks: Our opponents like to check and call their okay hands on the river; thus a bet often means either a bluff or a monster. Either way, raising does nothing because they will fold their bad hands and 3-bet their nuts. Conclusion: CALL. 2) Villain could easily have made a worse aces-up on the river, and he will not fold this -- so maybe Josh.'s theory doesn't apply in this case. Conclusion: RAISE. 3) Villain's turn donk reads like a semi-bluff, and there are two draws: KJ for the OESD, and spades, for the flush. Both just got there on the river. Since Villain limped in the CO after a couple limpers, having a suited connector in spades is certainly a possible hand. And since I'd find it tough to fold to a 3-bet, I don't want to risk 2 bets to win one. Conclusion: CALL. So that's 2 for call, 1 for raise. But the 1 for raise is pretty kind of persuasive. So I'm not saying it's 66% call. I'm saying it's about 55-60% for a call, meaning I'd call but it's very close. |
#10
|
|||
|
|||
Re: River AQ
[ QUOTE ]
So that's 2 for call, 1 for raise. But the 1 for raise is pretty kind of persuasive. So I'm not saying it's 66% call. I'm saying it's about 55-60% for a call, meaning I'd call but it's very close. [/ QUOTE ] Thats wrong because you don't weight these three reasons equally. |
|
|