overpair on the flop

[mgsimpleton]

Sorry I don't have the hand history available, I was playing on someone else's computer, but here's the hand history, from memory.

2/4 NL on party, MP2 has me covered, I have about 450.

my only read is that i've played with this guy a few times and i know him to be fairly solid, in that i've seen him with a big stack, often. i was 8 tabling for the first time so things were a little hectic and i was unable to see too many hands played in which i was not involved. so....

MP2 raises to 8, two callers, I make it 32 to go on the button with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] MP2 calls.

Pot - 75... Flop is Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. MP2 bets 50, I minraise to 100. MP2 calls.

I don't know what I Was thinking on the flop, I was sort of afraid of QQ because I'm chickensh--... I realize now that minraising looks weak and is begging the next play which is...

turn is a J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], MP2 goes all in for 268...

your move?

[thabadguy]

Does the villain know you to minraise sets on the flop?How bout overpairs?
I think the turn is a very easy fold. Hardly see a hand that you beat. If he is ballsy enough to do this with AQ, AK or TT, good for him.
I would like a flop raise to 150ish, if called proceed with caution. The J on the turn is one of the worst cards for you, he could easily have QQ or JJ.JJ being more likely, I think. I fold this without thinking twice.
The minraise on the flop cost you this hand I think, looks terribly weak to me.
On the other hand, a minraise with a set of queens once in a while is not a bad play, kinda throws the villain off as to what your minraise means.

[mgsimpleton]

this is the first time i have ever minraised an overpair on the flop. thought this was a pretty harmless flop, to be honest. the J was the card i was most afraid of when he pushed, especially given preflop action. what range of hands do you put him on? any chance it's a stone bluff (or is this too player dependent?)

i think the minraise is actually a decent play if i'm planning to go all the way anyway. if i'm planning on felting, no reason to raise huge and give away the strength of my hand on the flop, this will let him definitely stack me with a set/2 pr... otherwise he may value bet. this one was tough because the pot was already so big.

[thabadguy]

Obviously the 3 scariest cards in the deck are A,Q,J for you. The hands i see as most likely are QQ JJ maaaaybbee AQ, AK, or if he is real tricky AA. The only time i ever remember minraising is a check-minraise when I was on a complete bluff, trying to make it look like a semi-bluff,and it worked perfectly.
Honestly when a player minraises me, im thinking a badly played monster or absolute nothing, maybe my thinking is flawed, I just dont like minraising. The push obviously represents a set to me, Jacks being the likely set.
If i were in villain's shoes, the minraise would look like AK to me, and I would push turn with almost anything as long as an A or K did'nt show up.

I think if you woulda raised more on the flop, you would have the easiest fold on the turn if the villain pushes.
In conclusion I think a fold on the turn is in order, because he either has a set or is representing a set really well, because he thinks you are weak.
Maybe some more experienced posters would correct me if im wrong.

[mgsimpleton]

without revealing the results quite yet, i thought about that in retrospect - that my min raise might have looked like AK's weak continuation raise... but i mean, do many players really continue to represent AA or KK with AK when faced with a 2/3 pot bet on the flop??? and if i was that committed to actually representing those hands then wouldn't i be more inclined to raise huge?

that's what concerns me about the hand - what did the min raise represent? i thought it would just be confusing, because he can't put me on AK or AA or KK but you can't just assume QQ so i thought he'd be thrown off... actually let's be honest i was 8 tabling for the first time and felt overly tight because i'd just been stacked by a set on another table to my overpair...

point being... what do you put me on when i minraise if you are villain?

i couldn't put him on AQ because in my experience in these situations, AQ just wants to get to a showdown. any half decent player knows that i'm representing KK/AA so AQ is either way behind or way ahead of a complete bluff... therefore AQ usually makes a decision to go for it or not go for it but AQ putting me all in would be the worst decision if my range was AA/KK/QQ/AK... so AQ would have to put me on a wider range than that, and what the hell could it be? that's why i didn't think he had AQ.

do you people think i'm giving the average 2/4 NL player waaaay too much credit for thinking on multiple levels, or even, at all?

[jumister5889]

[ QUOTE ]
do you people think i'm giving the average 2/4 NL player waaaay too much credit for thinking on multiple levels, or even, at all?


[/ QUOTE ]

Personally, yes. I don't think the average 2/4nlhe er thinks that much and puts you on AA/KK. I think he just tried to bluff because of the miniraise.

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
do you people think i'm giving the average 2/4 NL player waaaay too much credit for thinking on multiple levels, or even, at all?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes

[thabadguy]

[ QUOTE ]
If i were in villain's shoes, the minraise would look like AK to me, and I would push turn with almost anything as long as an A or K did'nt show up.


[/ QUOTE ]
Just wanna say BINGO!

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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If i were in villain's shoes, the minraise would look like AK to me, and I would push turn with almost anything as long as an A or K did'nt show up.



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Just wanna say BINGO!

[/ QUOTE ]

So basically, against thabadguy, hero played this hand perfectly...Except she should have called the all in bet. Learning to induce bluffs from super aggressive players like thabadguy can be very profitable.

[aggie]

I think the two valid options on this flop are calling and a full raise. I really dislike the minraise as it accomplishes nothing and sets you up for some very difficult decisions. If you raise the $50 bet to 150-200 and he comes back over the top you can get away. The minraise is just as scary to somebody with a queen as a full raise. So not only do you not get money in the pot, you give away info about the strength of your hand.

I also like to just call all the way down on flops like these (especially against aggressive players). They will think their AQ is good and will continue to bet it with very few outs. If you are behind, you lose the minimum.

As it played out, I think you have a very close decision. I don’t think this allin necessarily shows great strength. Many opponents will think “I’ve got a Q that I’m not folding in a heads up pot but I don’t want to let a draw get there” so they shove in. I would probably make a crying call.