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#1
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Would you hedge USC, if you were up on them from pre-season?
Pre-season, I liked USC a lot, even at the odds that were being offered. I took SC to win the championship at +175.
Currently, I can lock in "Will USC win the Rose Bowl?" NO at +152, for guaranteed profit either way. Alternatively, Texas is at +222, assuming they win out (although there's some risk hedging this way). If it were you, would you hedge with one of these or other options, or would you just ride it out on SC? --------------- I also liked Reggie Bush a lot pre-season. I put some money on any USC player winning the Heisman at +155, and some money on Reggie Bush specifically winning at +460. Looking pretty good now, with current odds on Bush all the way down to -200. Should I hedge with any of the following options, or just ride it out on Bush? "Will Reggie Bush win the Heisman Trophy?" NO +188 "Will a USC player win the Heisman Trophy?" NO +407 |
#2
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Re: Would you hedge USC, if you were up on them from pre-season?
I wouldn't hedge either of them, but if I did, I'd go with Texas +222 and a USC player not to win the Heisman +407.
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#3
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Re: Would you hedge USC, if you were up on them from pre-season?
I would definitely go with Texas +222 as their hedge. Texas' 4 games left are @ Oklahoma St, Kansas, @ Baylor, @ Texas A&M. Then a Big XII title game, with the two top contenders already suffering blowout losses to TX. I think the chances of TX not going unbeaten at this point are miniscule. Also, I feel that their chances or getting jumped are also tiny.
It depends on what you think the chances are of USC losing before the RB. IMO, not enough to pass up +222 for +152. |
#4
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Re: Would you hedge USC, if you were up on them from pre-season?
You assume that Texas gets into the Rose Bowl if they win out, which isn't necessarily a lock. If USC, UT, and VaTech all win out, I think UT is the one on the outside looking in due to late season SOS.
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#5
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Re: Would you hedge USC, if you were up on them from pre-season?
[ QUOTE ]
You assume that Texas gets into the Rose Bowl if they win out, which isn't necessarily a lock. If USC, UT, and VaTech all win out, I think UT is the one on the outside looking in due to late season SOS. [/ QUOTE ] Yep, VA Tech will definitely move past TX if both are undefeated. |
#6
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Re: Would you hedge USC, if you were up on them from pre-season?
[ QUOTE ]
Yep, VA Tech will definitely move past TX if both are undefeated. [/ QUOTE ] Has this been documented at all? It seems likely they would pass Texas (and probably USC) in the computer rankings should they win out, but wouldn't they also have to pass Texas in at least one of the polls? Not saying it won't happen, but everything I've seen has Texas and USC on a collision course (assuming they both stay undefeated, of course). |
#7
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Re: Would you hedge USC, if you were up on them from pre-season?
I disagree, whip. I just don't think Va Tech can make up the ground. There is real feeling that Texas is the best team in the country. They are currently #1 in the BCS, and I don't see them losing that much ground over the last 5 games. I think Va Tech has to count on USC losing.
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#8
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Re: Would you hedge USC, if you were up on them from pre-season?
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There is real feeling that Texas is the best team in the country. [/ QUOTE ] Says who? Both polls with actual people voting have Texas #2 by a substantial margin. Computers have no feelings, and will just compute the raw numbers. If VaTech beats Miami, BC, and whoever in the ACC Champ game, they will hurdle Texas, who plays Division II teams from here on out. SOS counts for a lot, more than I think you're willing to accept. I now notice you're from Austin... I completely understand your position now. |
#9
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Re: Would you hedge USC, if you were up on them from pre-season?
whipsaw- Re: USC #1 in the polls. Yep. And Texas gains first-place votes every week. And I meant feeling among fans and commentators, which isn't factored in directly, but makes vote-changing more and more likely. Texas could win eleventy billion to zero and some people are not going to remove USC from the #1 spot until they lose. But they are certainly playing the best and are the only team in the top 10 in both offense and defense.
As far as your location shot, I'm an Oklahoma fan, not a Texas fan, and I'm being objective about it. I'm not a "homer" when it comes to sports analysis. I just bet on Baylor to cover vs OU last week. Texas would have to be WAY behind Va Tech in the computer rankings to overcome the substantial lead they have in the human polls, which count 2/3 of the formula. |
#10
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Re: Would you hedge USC, if you were up on them from pre-season?
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[ QUOTE ] There is real feeling that Texas is the best team in the country. [/ QUOTE ] Says who? Both polls with actual people voting have Texas #2 by a substantial margin. Not that it is in the BCS, but the latest MCS poll (Masters Coaches Survey) has Texas receiving 13 of 16 #1 votes. It's not like these people don't know football either: the list: Master Coaches Note: I don't offer this as any indicator of whether Texas will stay in the BCS top two, only to show that plenty of informed observers feel that Texas is the best team in the country right now. |
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