Haven't done one of these in a while - KK no Ace rainbow flop fold.

TimM · #1 10-19-2005, 09:41 PM

Playing 20/40 for the first time today.

Party Poker 20.00/40.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, 1 folds, MP2 3-bets, 2 folds, Button caps, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (17.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP2 raises, Button 3-bets, UTG+1 folds, Hero folds [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

The possibility of my outs being either unclean or in their hands, and that they might go to war on the turn, making it too expensive to keep drawing, led me to fold.

#2 10-19-2005, 10:25 PM

I think this is pretty dreadful, but that is an ugly board.

elindauer · #3 10-20-2005, 01:21 AM

Wow. Can it ever be right to fold both an overpair AND an OESD on the flop? HUGE laydown.

Let's think about some math. Sometimes you are up against AK and drawing to a few outs for 1/2 the pot. Almost dead. For the sake of argument, let's assume that you are actually totally dead.

In this case, calling the flop costs you 1.5 BB.

Other times, you are up against queens and jacks and are folding a TEN out draw. Oops. How much does a fold cost you? Well, you're going to get there about 1/3 of the time by the river, 1/3 of 12.5 BB is over 4 BB, but you have to pay 1 BB for it, and you lose to a redraw 20% of the time or so... in this case, folding is, say, a 2 BB mistake.

The turn is going to look similar, so if you can call on the flop, you'll probably be corrct to call the turn bet as well by the same logic. (Note that I am ignoring your suggestion that the players are going to go to war on the turn. I find this unlikely unless they both hold AK)

If it's say, aces and a set, it's a little more complicated with the various draws and redraws. Let's ignore this for now because I don't think it's going to matter.

Incorrect fold is twice as painful as an incorrect call. Do you think someone holding AK is twice as likely as the possibility of two lower sets? There are only 8 combinations of AK with your 2 kings removed, but 18 combinations of pairs that have made a set on this board...

edit: just realized there are only 9 combos of set pairs. That actually makes it pretty close, maybe slightly leaning toward a fold. If you like, read the rest of my original post...

... and another 6 (aces) that might play like this while we have a pretty live draw in a big pot. We need 2 players to have pairs and not AK, but even then, I don't think it's that close. It's probably about even money that folding is right, but an incorrect fold is more more costly than an incorrect call. Make the call and profit 1 SB.

Good luck.
Eric

TimM · #4 10-20-2005, 01:57 AM

I made a fold very much like this once before, about 200,000 hands ago. That time, I would have chopped with the other two kings.

As this hand turned out, all of my outs were tainted. Kings would lose unless the board paired too, while aces and nines chopped. This is the kind of thing I was worried about.

The only problem is, I actually had the best hand. I didn't know at the time, but the PF capper/flop 3-bettor was some kind of maniac with Kh8h. The middle guy had AQ. Bizarre hand.

elindauer · #5 10-20-2005, 02:07 AM

Ha. Don't feel too bad. Even if you call flop and turn you may end up folding unimproved on the river anyways. Call next time since it's a) close, b) rare, and c) painful emotionally to be wrong.

good luck.
eric

TimM · #6 10-20-2005, 02:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Ha. Don't feel too bad. Even if you call flop and turn you may end up folding unimproved on the river anyways. Call next time since it's a) close, b) rare, and c) painful emotionally to be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I figured if I called the flop I was pretty much showdown bound if I can get there for only two more BB, so folding as early as possible would save some money.

As for "c", it's all good. Although I would like to think I play the same ahead as behind, if I were stuck 50 big ones I probably wouldn't be able to make this fold.

jason_t · #7 10-20-2005, 03:28 AM

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b) rare

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The rarity of this exact situation is irrelevant; making solid reads to analyze a situation correctly so we can make thin value bets, good folds or brilliant call downs is the skill to be developed here.

Link.

elindauer · #8 10-20-2005, 01:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
b) rare

[/ QUOTE ]

The rarity of this exact situation is irrelevant; making solid reads to analyze a situation correctly so we can make thin value bets, good folds or brilliant call downs is the skill to be developed here.

Link.

[/ QUOTE ]

Rarity is relevent in that your decisions make a very small practical impact on your bankroll. However, a psychological devastation like folding a winner in a huge pot may linger with a player for quite a while and have a real impact on his decision making.

For example, the OP has now made this fold only twice, but both times he was wrong! What kind of effect does that have on his confidence?

I basically agree that we should strive to play perfectly. Recognizing that we are not machines and making the occasional safe play in a spot that is close anyways seems like a perfectly reasonable move to me.

Think of it as equivalent to folding a marginal hand when you know you don't play well postflop. You're making a "mistake", but given your own fallibility, it's the right play.

-Eric

edit: I see now that you are actually arguing that this case is not rare, in that you'll be faced with similar situations frequently. Well, I think the occurrence of a big made hand + a huge draw is in fact extremely rare, and it's not even clear that it's the right play here (0 for 2 so far).

arod15 · #9 10-20-2005, 04:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ha. Don't feel too bad. Even if you call flop and turn you may end up folding unimproved on the river anyways. Call next time since it's a) close, b) rare, and c) painful emotionally to be wrong.

good luck.
eric

[/ QUOTE ]

roy_miami · #10 10-20-2005, 02:07 AM

Is KK ever good here? I don't think you included this possibility in your analysis.