Analysis by PaulP; Hasan and Tuan hand. EV if Hasan have 50% of Tuan

sirio11 · #1 04-30-2005, 02:20 PM

You really need to read this analysis

Apathy · #2 04-30-2005, 02:49 PM

Unless Hasan is a terrible player, that is an incredible easy call, Tuans range on the button is huge here.

Since I have no reason to believe Hasan is a bad player, due to his tournament success, I think this is pretty clear cut collusion, I'm shocked they are going to get away with this.

The_Bends · #3 04-30-2005, 04:05 PM

That is a very interesting analysis. I'm a big fan a Phillips and genuniely believe he has the best interests of the game at heart. Clearly even an amatuer player can see that this is a call, Phils analysis simple proves it beyond doubt. THe problem is that proving it conclusively (IE to the point where people could be punished) is virtually impossible. For example lets say Hasan says he had a tell on Tuan and knew he had a hand that beat him more than 40% of the time. There is very little responce to this. Perhaps the only way would be for players folded cards to be recorded somehow, however this would reduce the value of the muck as a way of protecting your style of play as post tournament analysis would reveal players tendencies as clear as day.

This is a problem for tournament poker and not one that can easily be solved.

Apathy · #4 04-30-2005, 04:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That is a very interesting analysis. I'm a big fan a Phillips and genuniely believe he has the best interests of the game at heart. Clearly even an amatuer player can see that this is a call, Phils analysis simple proves it beyond doubt. THe problem is that proving it conclusively (IE to the point where people could be punished) is virtually impossible. For example lets say Hasan says he had a tell on Tuan and knew he had a hand that beat him more than 40% of the time. There is very little responce to this. Perhaps the only way would be for players folded cards to be recorded somehow, however this would reduce the value of the muck as a way of protecting your style of play as post tournament analysis would reveal players tendencies as clear as day.

This is a problem for tournament poker and not one that can easily be solved.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was a televised event, if they show this hand we will see what tuan mucked.

The_Bends · #5 04-30-2005, 04:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That is a very interesting analysis. I'm a big fan a Phillips and genuniely believe he has the best interests of the game at heart. Clearly even an amatuer player can see that this is a call, Phils analysis simple proves it beyond doubt. THe problem is that proving it conclusively (IE to the point where people could be punished) is virtually impossible. For example lets say Hasan says he had a tell on Tuan and knew he had a hand that beat him more than 40% of the time. There is very little responce to this. Perhaps the only way would be for players folded cards to be recorded somehow, however this would reduce the value of the muck as a way of protecting your style of play as post tournament analysis would reveal players tendencies as clear as day.

This is a problem for tournament poker and not one that can easily be solved.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was a televised event, if they show this hand we will see what tuan mucked.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. Even then Hasan could easily say his tell was wrong and you're back to square one as far a proving collusion. I spose one solution would be to have an independed review panel who collected evidence to prove that collusion was the most likely explination for a series of plays in the tournament.

slickpoppa · #6 04-30-2005, 04:30 PM

I think it is good that we are discussing the issue, but some people are going to read this thread and automatically assume that there was collusion. I really doubt that HH was colluding. If he were colluding, why the hell would he fold face up?

gumpzilla · #7 04-30-2005, 04:34 PM

It's been pointed out everywhere else that this is discussed, but I'll point it out again: It's a WPT event. They have hole card cameras. People will figure it out.

slickpoppa · #8 04-30-2005, 04:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It's been pointed out everywhere else that this is discussed, but I'll point it out again: It's a WPT event. They have hole card cameras. People will figure it out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I realize that they have hole cameras. But the chances of a mundane hand liek this actually being shown are low. If HH was consciously cheating, he would gain nothing by showing his cards.

2005 · #9 04-30-2005, 05:49 PM

You think if they're 3 handed and Tuan moves in w/ say, 89s, they're not going to show HH mucking KJs? The only reason they wouldn't show it is because they know it's collusion and don't want collusion advertised all over their TV show.

Gavin

slickpoppa · #10 04-30-2005, 06:08 PM

The producers of the WPT probably do not know how bad of a fold it was. They would probably see the hand and say, "Guess Habib read him for an ace, makes sense." But even if there is a chance that the hand would get on TV, that does not explain why HH would so brazenly flaunt the fold. Showing the fold only increases the chance of people finding out about it and accusing him of cheating.