Blind steal goes bad

[A_K]

Because of the loosness of most of the games where I play, I don't get a lot of practice stealing blinds and playing back at possible resteals. Sometimes I get it right, and sometimes I feel like I'm spewing. So . . . what would you do here?

Villan is 20/9/infinite, but only over about 30 hands. No blind-defense reads, and I haven't seen him do anything out of the ordinary.

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

To agressive? SB and BB were reasonably tight, so I thought this had a decent chance of a successful steal.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero . . .

Raise here? Just call? Hard to see J high having much showdown value, so even assuming that both of my outs are clean, I am just barely getting odds to peel and see the turn. Fold?

Edited to reflect the fact that it is impossible for me to check raise on the flop.

Edited again -- I shouldn't post when I'm tired. I realize that (a) I have six outs if villan doesn't have a J or a T, and (b) that I'm getting odds even if he has a J or a T. Still not sure what to do though.

[GTSamIAm]

Easy fold. No reason to assume he'll fold to a flop raise unless you've already seen him do things like that.

[gharp]

I think you can justify a peel here getting 7.5:1. You'll have to fold the turn if it's not an 8,9,T or J.



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(b) that I'm getting odds even if he has a J or a T. Still not sure what to do though.

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You aren't getting good enough odds to call if villain has a J or T. You're screwed in that case, but I tend not to worry too much about domination in these heads-up blind-steal situations.

[A_K]

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(b) that I'm getting odds even if he has a J or a T. Still not sure what to do though.

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You aren't getting good enough odds to call if villain has a J or T. You're screwed in that case, but I tend not to worry too much about domination in these heads-up blind-steal situations.

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You're right. Man I must be tired if I can't properly multiply by two tonight.

[shermn27]

Sure you might be getting odds to try to spike a pair, but what if your opponent already has your pair beat? Then if you spike a pair you are in an even worse spot. If he has been fairly tight, I would just throw this small pot away and wait for a better opportunity. You tried to steal, he has a real hand, just go away.

[jrz1972]

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Sure you might be getting odds to try to spike a pair, but what if your opponent already has your pair beat?

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You're going to get consistently run over in blind steal situations if you think this way.

(That's not to say that folding is terrible on this one particular hand. Personally I would peel, but folding is a good option too. The main thing is that you cannot fear that villain is looking at KK just because he 3-bet. Many villians will 3-bet any pair, any A, or any suited paint. You have your full complement of 6 outs against most of villain's holdings.)

[kiemo]

If you call this, you pretty much have to raise the turn on a blank. No other way you can win this hand besides forcing him off it.

However I fold in this situation. JT simply isnt strong enough to play against a tight player who 3-bet and without a good read I dont think players at these stakes are well versed in the blind resteal attempt, which means he is easily ahead of you.

[jrz1972]

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If you call this, you pretty much have to raise the turn on a blank. No other way you can win this hand besides forcing him off it.

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I don't agree with this either. You have enough outs to justify a peel. You'll frequently win this hand if you spike a J or a T.

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he is easily ahead of you

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Yeah you're behind here basically 100% of the time, but you're getting the odds to take one off. Whether you want to try to push villain off his hand on the turn is a completely different decision. That decision depends on how often villain is able to find the fold button. The decision to call the flop can be viewed as just an everyday pot-odds decision.

*grunch*

I don't mind a raise like this against tight blinds. You're going to get 3-bet once in a while, it happens.

After getting 3-bet and bet into on this flop, I fold it. I don't like my chances of drawing to a pair that could easily be no good anyway. You can't win UI, and your draw is either weak or crushed already.

If the pot was a million dollars, you'd be committed to trying for the lucky turn card, but say goodbye to this small pot and move on to the next one.

I think many aggro players know when to challenge the blinds, but get too attached to bad/dangerous flops. None of us like to wear the dress, but your steal raises won't ever be +EV if you're blowing those extra SBs.

[adsman]

You can either fold it here, or smooth call zee flop and raise zee turn.