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#1
03-28-2005, 05:36 PM
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44 raises limpers from the Button
Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. MP2 posts a blind of $5. CO posts a blind of $5. UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 (poster) checks, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls. Two posters and a bunch of limpers - 44 is good to raise [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Flop: (16 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(8 players)</font> SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls. The only problem here is that with te preflop raise - everyone puts hero on the ace. AK, AQ, AJ. Everyone is calling the flop bet. Turn: (10.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font> SB checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, SB calls, UTG folds, MP2 calls. I could have raised the turn but wanted the overcalls and thought I would get some extra bets on the river. Good smooth call with everyone on dead draws? River: (14.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> SB checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB folds, MP2 folds, CO calls. No one even had an Ace to pay me off [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] Final Pot: 16.50 BB Comments.... 
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#5
03-28-2005, 06:42 PM
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Re: 44 raises limpers from the Button
Raising the turn gets me heads up with the CO turn bettor - who might even fold here to a turn raise. Raising gets me 2 BB when and if CO calls both the flop raise and a river bet. A raise here almost ensure the other two players involved in the hand fold. Raising = 1-3 BB against 1 player with 0-4 outs at best. I only get 1 BB if everyone including cutoff fold here.
Calling the turn gets me 3 BB on the turn and whatever I can pick up on the river - here 1 BB extra. I expected the other two to call the turn bet. The best hands have 4 outs against me and the field has 10 outs at best against me. A higher pair (88, 99) has two outs and would incorrectly call the turn bet but not a raise. Why not call the turn? A J or Q on the river would certainly get me an extra bet or two on top of that on the river. Someone could two pair their AX or make trip A's. Calling = 4-6 BB (possibly more) agaisnt 3 players with 5-6 outs? Why is raising the turn better? My estimation of outs are guesses. An Ax. has no outs. A higher pair than 4's has 2 outs. Anyone with a 3 or 5 has 4 outs to a straight. The best possible hand we could be up against has 4 outs. [EDIT: a 56 hands would have 8 outs].
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#7
03-28-2005, 08:14 PM
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Re: 44 raises limpers from the Button
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Raising the turn gets me heads up with the CO turn bettor [/ QUOTE ] It does? Rob [/ QUOTE ] What hands are going to call 2 BB cold on that turn? The only hands I would be concerned about are gut shots or a bigger pair hitting a 2-outer. I dont think anyone is drawing to the open ended straight and I think the fields as a whole has very few outs against my set. It seems more profitable to call the turn. With 10.6 BB in the pot my raise gives 5:1 odds. A hand like TT,JJ,QQ,KK, 99, 88 would more likely incorrectly call one bet getting 10:1 rather than 2 cold. I also dont want to knock out an ace/bad kicker that is drawing dead. This type of hand might not call 2 cold here but will pay off another bet on the river. What about QJ, KJ, KT, and other hands that will might call the turn bet drawing dead. Each of those might call a river bet if they hit a big pair. Do I want these hands to fold to 2-cold on the turn or call 1 each? drawing next to dead? Again I ask - Why raise the turn?
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#8
03-28-2005, 08:46 PM
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Re: 44 raises limpers from the Button
[ QUOTE ]
What hands are going to call 2 BB cold on that turn? [/ QUOTE ] Because anyone with an Ace will call you the vast majority of the time -- so will 56, and often, so will gutshots. None of those hands are calling on the river, though (with the exception of the Ace). I think you're making a rather large mistake if you'll assume that QJ or KJ will call one bet on the turn here -- if you're up against the sort of player that calls the turn with undercards, I don't see them having that difficult of a time calling two bets cold with a fairly wide range of hands. This isn't an easy board to get many more bets out of, but the hands that are going to call the turn for one bet are reasonably likely to call the turn for two bets, and are much more likely to call two bets on the turn than one bet on the turn and one bet on the river. Rob
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#9
03-28-2005, 10:45 PM
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Re: 44 raises limpers from the Button
[ QUOTE ]
Again I ask - Why raise the turn? [/ QUOTE ] Because the pot is big. Anyone with an ace will be drawing nearly dead and call you down. It's Party, someone might even have QQ and call down. It happens, just raise, people love to call.
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