do you take a stand?

CDSNUTSINYAMOUTH · #1 04-22-2005, 02:30 PM

10+1 SNG. Basically big stack is pretty much a chump. I knew he was going to bust me probably because it seems often the chump gets lucky early accumulates a lot of chips and then throws it in there towards the late stages to gambool it up and bust me. Sometimes this is a good strategy instead of just waiting aroudn for hands and go in with your premium ones, hoping to hold up on your 60/40 edge. Do you take the chance here with QQ tho with 2 short stacks with one of them just blinding himself off because he's disconnected ? If i win the hand I'll probably win the tournament. If I fold, I could squeeze into third, but there's no guarantee. Is this call mathematically correct? Thanks.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

Button (t3830)
Hero (t1170)
BB (t420)
UTG (t643)
MP (t1937)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls t200, 1 fold, Button raises to t3700, 2 folds.

Flop: (t4200) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Turn: (t4200) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: (t4200) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t4200
Main Pot: t600 (t600), won by Button.
Pot 2: t3600 (t3600), between Button and Hero. > Pot won by Button (t3600).

Results in white below: 
Button has 5d Ad (one pair, aces).
Hero has Qh Qc (one pair, queens).
Outcome: Button wins t4200.

DasLeben · #2 04-22-2005, 02:36 PM

If you fold this, I will come to your house and eat your cat.

kyro · #3 04-22-2005, 02:37 PM

you're kidding right?

ColdestCall · #4 04-22-2005, 02:39 PM

You have to call here. You will be well ahead most of the most, and you will win most of the time, and as a result you'll be in good shape to make a run at first most of the time.

The rest of the time you'll say "that sucked" and fire up another tournament.

gumpzilla · #5 04-22-2005, 02:40 PM

I think this is a pretty easy call, though I haven't run ICM on it. You're going to be way ahead of the button almost all of the time - he surely does not need AA, KK or AK to do this and you're spanking everything else. You're also reasonably short yourself, so if UTG doubles up you're not looking so good.

This call becomes less correct if UTG vanishes and the only stack shorter than you is the one with 1 BB behind the BB he's already posted. In that case, it might be correct to fold, but it's probably close.

kyro · #6 04-22-2005, 02:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]

This call becomes less correct if UTG vanishes and the only stack shorter than you is the one with 1 BB behind the BB he's already posted. In that case, it might be correct to fold, but it's probably close.

[/ QUOTE ]

no. no. no. no. no. folding QQ here against an aggressive big stack is asinine. are you playing for 3rd?

gumpzilla · #7 04-22-2005, 03:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]

no. no. no. no. no. folding QQ here against an aggressive big stack is asinine. are you playing for 3rd?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I'm playing for money.

It's possible that the call doesn't suffer, but a lot depends on what you think BB will do in that situation. If he'll overcall, then you love getting your money in because it's highly unlikely that you'll lose both the main and side pots, and you'll almost always have a busted shortstack. So there it's very good. However, if BB is astute enough to fold and hope that the big stack gets you, then you could be in for some hurt there. You don't become a monster if you double up, and I think you probably have less to gain moving up then you do by losing this hand. That said, I suspect that QQ is still strong enough that calling is correct with UTG disappeared, but that it is actually probably surprisingly close. Having done a few ICM calculations in situations similar to this, it is surprising how often its predictions are tighter than you might think.

microbet · #8 04-22-2005, 02:41 PM

It is mathematically correct. He would have to be tight as hell for it not to be, and like you said he isn't.

If you knew what his cards were you would know you were making $1.05 with this call. It's more like $1.80 if you put him on any reasonable range that includes A5s.

gumpzilla · #9 04-22-2005, 02:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]

If you knew what his cards were you would know you were making $1.05 with this call.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has AA. He shows me. I'm making $1.05 with this call? Doubtful.

microbet · #10 04-22-2005, 02:47 PM

He didn't have AA, he had A5s. If he did, and you knew it, you would be losing $13.29 by calling.