KK Hand, Raised On Turn Out Of No Where

Twitch1977 · #1 02-17-2005, 12:00 PM

The Button had just sat down at this table, this was his second or third hand so no real read on him.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 5 folds, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, BB Folds, Hero ...

The board is all rags, only hands I can put him on are a rag two-pair or maybe a set.

I feel like going into call down mode is weak, but in this situation it feels like I'm beat, I'm not sure he would raise me after I raised preflop, raised the flop and led the turn if he couldn't beat an overpair.

My brain says raise, but my gut says call down.

Comments?

JordanIB · #2 02-17-2005, 12:10 PM

Call down.

Chris Daddy Cool · #3 02-17-2005, 12:11 PM

3betting this turn would be bad. given the strength he's shown so far, hes basically telling you he probably has better than one-pair. if not and you're made to look like a waek-tight fool, then so be it. take notes on him.

Entity · #4 02-17-2005, 12:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
3betting this turn would be bad. given the strength he's shown so far, hes basically telling you he probably has better than one-pair. if not and you're made to look like a waek-tight fool, then so be it. take notes on him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Listen to fish daddy, guys. 3-betting this turn against an unknown is not the smartest move.

Rob

moot · #5 02-17-2005, 12:16 PM

I'd consider 3-betting it. If it gets capped you're probably hurting.

He could have had a J w/ a decent kicker and decided to wait for the turn to punish you (putting you on overcards).

If he smooth calls a turn 3-bet its probably safe to bet the river. If he caps you're probably hurting.

The way I look at it:
-If you go into call mode you stand to lose 2 more bets.
-If you 3-bet on the turn you can fold to a cap, costing you the same 2 bets, but if he smooth calls you can probably toss out another bet on the river and you'll usually end up winning the whole pot.

bear187 · #6 02-17-2005, 12:23 PM

Moot speaks wisdom.

Nick Royale · #7 02-17-2005, 12:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He could have had a J w/ a decent kicker and decided to wait for the turn to punish you (putting you on overcards).

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, but more often he has Hero beat.

[ QUOTE ]
-If you 3-bet on the turn you can fold to a cap

[/ QUOTE ]
No. You won't be able to fold this turn.

Call down.

moot · #8 02-17-2005, 12:41 PM

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Yes, but more often he has Hero beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's extremely player dependant and we'll both agree we don't have the reads to know. We also know our hand is too good to flat out fold when we get raised.

We're not getting odds to call for our trips, and yet you say that more often than not the hero is beat. Yet you decide to pay off.

So we can't raise because we're beat...
Yet we pay off because we're beat.

I dunno, I don't like it.

EDIT ==

I suppose the overall cost in bets is about the same, I just don't like wimpin' out every time a 1/2 player shows a little aggression.

Nick Royale · #9 02-17-2005, 12:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That's extremely player dependant and we'll both agree we don't have the reads to know. We also know our hand is too good to flat out fold when we get raised.

[/ QUOTE ]
When a player bets into me on the flop and check/raises me on the turn, I'm most often beat holding an overpair.

[ QUOTE ]
We're not getting odds to call for our trips, and yet you say that more often than not the hero is beat. Yet decide to pay off.

[/ QUOTE ]
We're often beat. We're not ahead the 66% we need to 3-bet, but we're definately ahead often enough to call down getting 5:1 (we only need to win ~16% to make call down profitable)

[ QUOTE ]
So we can't raise because we're beat...
Yet we pay off because we're beat.

I dunno, I don't like.

[/ QUOTE ]
As you understand your reasoning is flawed. You don't have to be ahead 66% of the time to call down, as we do to raise him.

The reason we can't fold to a turn cap is that we have up to 8 outs against 2 pairs. Getting 13.5:1, that's an easy call. I'd say you'll have on average ~4-5 outs. EDIT: and that's being pesimistic...

moot · #10 02-17-2005, 12:56 PM

I forget about the board pairing on the river. So yes, you're right that a cap should be called for one more bet on the turn due to the odds of the board pairing plus the trip outs.

But I'd still consider raising the flop bet simply because in my experience with 1/2 I'm often raised with a wide range of hands, many of which I'm beating.