Huge pot, crap cards

silkyslim · #1 06-27-2005, 03:22 PM

UTG is LP-P, SB is very tight passive, button is a decent player, no reads on other callers. I raised flop because I might spike a J for the win, or I will get cold callers for my flush. Do I cap river?
Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (8 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (8 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP1 calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP1 calls, Button calls, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, MP1 folds, Button folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 20.50 BB

deception5 · #2 06-27-2005, 03:28 PM

I was just talking about this concept with a friend the other day. My line on this flop would have been to call the initial bet and 3-bet if it came back hoping to build up a huge pot on the flop rather than limit the field. Anyone have any thoughts on which line is a better choice here?

KeysrSoze · #3 06-27-2005, 03:33 PM

I know a lot of people will say just call the flop and not blow people out, but raising just might buy you 3 whole outs. I'm conflicted myself.

DeuceKicker · #4 06-27-2005, 03:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I raised flop because I might spike a J for the win, or I will get cold callers for my flush. Do I cap river?

[/ QUOTE ]

I see this kind of reasoning all the time. It seems like nothing more than rationalizing reckless play.

Neither of your reasons for this raise make much sense to me at all. Raising because you MIGHT spike a 3-outer--which will STILL leave you with a crappy kicker even if you're not already up against 2pr or better--is crazy.

Then you say you might get cold-callers in case your flush hits? If you want to be paid off when the flush hits, you need to call and allow everyone to stay in.

Without the flush draw this is an easy fold. With it it's an easy call. I can't see any reason whatsoever to raise here.

I wouldn't cap the river. You have the 3rd nut straight.

silkyslim · #5 06-27-2005, 03:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I see this kind of reasoning all the time. It seems like nothing more than rationalizing reckless play.

[/ QUOTE ]
This reasoning comes straight from SSH's protecting your hand. My J was an overcard, and the crappy kicker is a good reason to raise. I also forgot to mention that I thought I may get a free card because my opponents were passive.

DeuceKicker · #6 06-27-2005, 06:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This reasoning comes straight from SSH's protecting your hand. My J was an overcard, and the crappy kicker is a good reason to raise. I also forgot to mention that I thought I may get a free card because my opponents were passive.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have SSH in front of me, but I think you're misapplying the idea of protection. You want to protect a 'decent but vulnerable' hand. Jack-high is not a decent hand. "Protection" might apply if you had paired the Jack.

I don't know how getting a free card is going to work. If you think you'll get a few cold-callers for your flush draw, and assuming they've connected with the flop in some way (since they're coldcalling) are you sure none of them will bet the turn if you check? Free card plays from BB into a field of eight have to have a microsopic success rate.

MrWookie47 · #7 06-27-2005, 03:45 PM

3 flop cold callers? You get an A+ for table selection, but it looks like your plan to buy outs is dead. As for value, you got as much in the pot as you would have by calling SB and having everyone else call. Since that's unlikely, your raise netted you more value while you have an equity edge with your flush draw. If you think you'll get cold callers, raise it up.

On the river, he 3bet you on a 4str8 board, and you don't have the nuts. Calling is good, unless you know this guy can't read the board.

silkyslim · #8 06-27-2005, 03:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
but it looks like your plan to buy outs is dead

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you think of this plan?

MrWookie47 · #9 06-27-2005, 04:27 PM

Well, it's not a terrible one. One thing is for certain: you may actually be buying outs. It's not like you have AJ and most of your outs are already clean or aren't going to be cleaned (reverse domination). However, you aren't buying all that many. Only 3, tops, and that's giving the J's full value. You won't be too happy about spiking a 5.

At this table, however, I think you would have had a hard time not knowing that your opponents like to cold call on the flop like this. I think that a buying outs play works better at tighter tables and against fewer opponents. Against a herd of these donkeys, I don't think you're buying much. However, you do get to raise for value.

In summary, at your table, I like a raise for value. At a tight table, you can raise to buy outs, but you're spending just as much for half as many in this case. Conceivably, you may also buy the button and a free card at this sort of table. At a medium table, you should definitely call and keep people in the hand. You'd not like at all to have just one cold caller and everyone else fold.

TomBrooks · #10 06-27-2005, 03:54 PM

FLOP: I tend to like the flop raise to knock out any A,K,Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in case runner runner [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]s come, and it could improve your chances to win with a pair of Jacks also, like you said.

RIVER: I'd cap. I think UTG is more likely to have 77 than or 89s for a better straight. 85 seems too unlikely for anyone to limp with, even a LPP unless he is a SuperDonk. He could have stayed in on the flop with 77 taking a chance he could have the best hand if no one had a ten combined with his 2 chances to spike a set plus 1 1/2 equivilent outs to make a backdoor straight. Since Villian is a Donkish LPP, he may not be giving you credit for a 5 or 89, although he should since you limped in from the BB.