How common is a -140bb swing?

DavidC · #1 07-13-2005, 02:08 PM

I've had one recently, I've had many in the past, but I'd like to know how often I can expect swings of this magnitude or worse.

Obviously it depends on my winrate (which I don't precisely know) and SD/hr (which I don't precisely know), but that's about all I know. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Anyone with any info on this is appreciated.

--Dave.

shant · #2 07-13-2005, 02:10 PM

I haven't been playing poker for more than a year, and I've had at least 2 200BB slides. I've also had a couple more 100BB slides. Poker is fun.

SmileyEH · #3 07-13-2005, 02:11 PM

Not that often. Over 100k hands at 2/4 I've had several 100BB downswing, maybe 2 150BB downswings, and one 200BB downswing. So for me, I'd expect a 140BB downswing every 30k hands or so - once a month or so.

-SmileyEH

QTip · #4 07-14-2005, 11:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Not that often. Over 100k hands at 2/4 I've had several 100BB downswing, maybe 2 150BB downswings, and one 200BB downswing. So for me, I'd expect a 140BB downswing every 30k hands or so - once a month or so.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

Smiley:

I'm really wondering about the variance in the 2/4 full game. I'm not convinced that a decent downswing there should be that common at all.

feelixthegreek · #5 07-14-2005, 12:11 PM

I've had 100-150 BB downswings at 2/4 on a few occasions. They're there, for sure. How much the downswings were exacerbated by poor play I do not know for sure. My tendency during rough patches is to reverse tilt, which may shave BBs off any corresponding upswings.

SmileyEH · #6 07-14-2005, 12:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not that often. Over 100k hands at 2/4 I've had several 100BB downswing, maybe 2 150BB downswings, and one 200BB downswing. So for me, I'd expect a 140BB downswing every 30k hands or so - once a month or so.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

Smiley:

I'm really wondering about the variance in the 2/4 full game. I'm not convinced that a decent downswing there should be that common at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely not. I play a lot more loose and aggressvie than many players though. My variance is probably somewhat higher.

-SmileyEH

QTip · #7 07-14-2005, 01:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not that often. Over 100k hands at 2/4 I've had several 100BB downswing, maybe 2 150BB downswings, and one 200BB downswing. So for me, I'd expect a 140BB downswing every 30k hands or so - once a month or so.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

Smiley:

I'm really wondering about the variance in the 2/4 full game. I'm not convinced that a decent downswing there should be that common at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely not. I play a lot more loose and aggressvie than many players though. My variance is probably somewhat higher.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

That's probably true. I've seen you at work [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

baronzeus · #8 07-14-2005, 01:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not that often. Over 100k hands at 2/4 I've had several 100BB downswing, maybe 2 150BB downswings, and one 200BB downswing. So for me, I'd expect a 140BB downswing every 30k hands or so - once a month or so.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

Smiley:

I'm really wondering about the variance in the 2/4 full game. I'm not convinced that a decent downswing there should be that common at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely not. I play a lot more loose and aggressvie than many players though. My variance is probably somewhat higher.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

That's probably true. I've seen you at work [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Now that my VPIP is around 24 I'm doing much better but my variance/SD is enormous. It comes with the territory but it's a damn lot more fun to do it this way.

Entity · #9 07-13-2005, 02:12 PM

I had a 110BB downswing yesterday and a 110.5 upswing shortly thereafter. I'm sure that a 150BB downswing isn't that uncommon. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

DavidC · #10 07-13-2005, 02:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I had a 110BB downswing yesterday and a 110.5 upswing shortly thereafter. I'm sure that a 150BB downswing isn't that uncommon. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Were you playing 6-max again?

I think this swing was magnified by atypically poor play during the slide, but thank you to everyone for your info.

--Dave.

And yes, I've experienced a similar swing over 2k hands (-200 to -80 in the 2k, to +100 by 5k hands)... I know it happens, but I'm curious about how often. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Edit: and that swing was at full ring