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#1
03-27-2005, 09:41 AM
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Steal Called - now what?
'Stars $30 + 3 2-table. 6 left, 75/150, I'm 2nd in chips with 5025.
I get 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the CO. Folded to me, I raise to 450, Button (9189) calls, blinds fold. (pot=1125) Flop: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I bet 750, button calls (2625) Turn: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] OK, the only person who can bust me called my preflop raise and smooth-called about 9% of his stack on a coordinated board. I have turned 2-pair. What's your read on the button? (my impression - since he's had a big stack, he has liked to see flops and try to outplay opponents later in the hand - successfully so far) Who bets? How much? What do you do if raised? My decisions, rationale, and results later. 
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#2
03-27-2005, 09:53 AM
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Re: Steal Called - now what?
I'm putting him on something like AT, KT, JT. On the flop he figures gutshot + two overcards are good enough to call 2/3 of pot. He also is planning to bet the river if you check behind him whether he hits or not, so I check the turn and let him bluff the river.
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#3
03-27-2005, 10:01 AM
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Re: Steal Called - now what?
No offense, but that sounds like wishful thinking. Ignoring the board and action, are you saying that the entire range of hands you'd put him on flat-calling preflop is AT, KT, JT?
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#4
03-27-2005, 10:04 AM
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Re: Steal Called - now what?
Nope, but that's what i'm putting him on now.
He doesn't check/call an overpair on the flop He doesn't call the flop with just overcards He doesn't check/call the flop with the big stack and an open-ended straight draw He doesn't check/call the flop with a set (unless he's stupid) He *does* check/call the flop with some sort of marginal drawing hand.
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#5
03-27-2005, 10:13 AM
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Re: Steal Called - now what?
He doesn't check/call the flop with a set (unless he's stupid)
Explain this point. Why is it dangerous to give a preflop raiser a free card here? (the corrolary is why do we assume this guy isn't stupid) [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
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#6
03-27-2005, 10:22 AM
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Re: Steal Called - now what?
because you have to have one of three cards for some sort of draw, a 5, 7 or T. Since you could be on a steal you could have any.
If we don't assume he's capable of rational play then there's no point in trying to put him on a hand cause he could have 23o!
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