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#1
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If standard deviation is 6.9 in 10+1 buy-in heads up SNG (60% ITM), what is the risk of ruin and minimum bankroll requirement?
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#2
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You need to account for EV in there.
Then fire up google, and look for kelly betting. |
#3
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Kelly% = .13
What's the BR requirement given this and the other info I've given in this thread? |
#4
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So you are saying he needs $1800 to play $10 sit n go's?
Is it just me or does that sound like a fricking huge bank roll. I thought 30/40 buyins was plenty. I guess I could be way off........... |
#5
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bankroll=-ln(r)v/(2E) where v=variance, E=expectation, and r=risk of ruin.
You bankroll is your total wealth (including future earnings) minus expenses, not your "gambling bank", or "what you can afford to lose" You can Kelly bet by changing buy-ins, moving up or down according to bankroll. Btw E=.6 is um, optimistic. |
#6
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The game is HEADS UP (that is, one on one) sit-n-go where our hero wins 60% of his matches and loses 40% of his matches. This translates into an ROI of 9% per match given that the buy-in is 10+1 or 20+2 or 50+5. What is the smallest number of buy-ins that hero must have in his bankroll so that he will have a risk of ruin of ZERO?
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#7
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60% win% + 10% vig tells you the ev.
Kelly doesn't work here since we can't adjust the buyin amount. |
#8
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So what info are needed to get the BR requirement with only 1% or less chance of going broke in this case?
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#9
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Look for the Sileo/Chen/Weideman/mel3brown formula. BruceZ has mentioned it several times, and even posted his derivation here some time ago.
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#10
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You need about 183 buy-ins if you win .6 buy-ins per tournament. Your risk tolerance pegs you at about .4 Kelly.
The formulas are old and were discovered by the blackjack theory people in the 90's. See our paper at bjmath.com. Copies of my 2+2 mag article are available on request. Bill Chin |
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