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#1
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i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
It wasnt mine, but someone who is very good....
121 players left...120 get paid...71-120 get 11,000$....41-70 get 12k.. Chip Jett is at another table with 2 antes in his stack. Blinds 600/1200 200 ante. Hero has more chips than apporximately 12 people, and is UTG with 9600 chips and JJ. Many at the table have big stacks including the bb. Hero? sheets |
#2
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Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
this might be a copout, i'm not sure.
but if i had satellited into the event, i'm folding here. the potential ROI/$EV gain of just folding in that case is huge, obviously. however, if i directly bought in, i'm definitely gambooling it up, because if dropping a $10k buyin is not a big deal for me, neither is winning $11k. |
#3
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Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
[ QUOTE ]
this might be a copout, i'm not sure. but if i had satellited into the event, i'm folding here. the potential ROI/$EV gain of just folding in that case is huge, obviously. however, if i directly bought in, i'm definitely gambooling it up, because if dropping a $10k buyin is not a big deal for me, neither is winning $11k. [/ QUOTE ] I know players use this type of information in making their decisions, but truly, EV is EV, regardless of how much it cost you to get into that position. If you super-satellited in for $5 or plunked down $10K, your result is 0 if you bust now and at least 11K if you survive one more player. -Oz- |
#4
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Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] this might be a copout, i'm not sure. but if i had satellited into the event, i'm folding here. the potential ROI/$EV gain of just folding in that case is huge, obviously. however, if i directly bought in, i'm definitely gambooling it up, because if dropping a $10k buyin is not a big deal for me, neither is winning $11k. [/ QUOTE ] I know players use this type of information in making their decisions, but truly, EV is EV, regardless of how much it cost you to get into that position. If you super-satellited in for $5 or plunked down $10K, your result is 0 if you bust now and at least 11K if you survive one more player. -Oz- [/ QUOTE ] well, i just dont know about this. i mean i understand what you're saying. it's easy to say $EV is $EV. but what i'm suggesting is that that just isn't realistic for someone that supersatellited into the tournament. what i think is that the potential "life-changing-ness" of $11k to someone that was previously playing, you know, $5 SNGs or something, is huge. he has the potential to return $11k on a $5 investment. to suggest that this is no different than a regular big tourney player picking up $11k on a $10k investment is just being unrealistic, imo. |
#5
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Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
[ QUOTE ]
what i think is that the potential "life-changing-ness" of $11k to someone that was previously playing, you know, $5 SNGs or something, is huge. he has the potential to return $11k on a $5 investment. to suggest that this is no different than a regular big tourney player picking up $11k on a $10k investment is just being unrealistic, imo. [/ QUOTE ] 11k is nothing in the real world. At least not where I live (DC). It would be nice, sure. But it isn't paying off your mortgage or anything. It might payoff a car, but hell, those loans are only 3 years anyway. |
#6
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Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] what i think is that the potential "life-changing-ness" of $11k to someone that was previously playing, you know, $5 SNGs or something, is huge. he has the potential to return $11k on a $5 investment. to suggest that this is no different than a regular big tourney player picking up $11k on a $10k investment is just being unrealistic, imo. [/ QUOTE ] 11k is nothing in the real world. At least not where I live (DC). It would be nice, sure. But it isn't paying off your mortgage or anything. It might payoff a car, but hell, those loans are only 3 years anyway. [/ QUOTE ] ugh. this shouldnt even be an issue. if you cant see the difference in $11k for a person with bankroll enough to play $5 SNGs and $11k for a person with bankroll enough to direct buy into $10k tourneys, then, whatever. |
#7
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Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
[ QUOTE ]
however, if i directly bought in, i'm definitely gambooling it up, because if dropping a $10k buyin is not a big deal for me, neither is winning $11k. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think so... 11k means something to everybody even the pros. If you double up, you are not guaranteed to make it past 50 more people so you don't win a lot of EV, however by folding you are 100% sure to make at least 11k. It's a fold. |
#8
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Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] however, if i directly bought in, i'm definitely gambooling it up, because if dropping a $10k buyin is not a big deal for me, neither is winning $11k. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think so... 11k means something to everybody even the pros. If you double up, you are not guaranteed to make it past 50 more people so you don't win a lot of EV, however by folding you are 100% sure to make at least 11k. It's a fold. [/ QUOTE ] i think this is incorrect. think about it in terms of the average $20-$50 partypoker (or whatever) tourney that you play. in those tournies, i'm pushing this everytime, because i want to double up, because i could give a [censored] about winning $20 for 3 hours of poker. it's the same for big tourney pros who are investing hundreds of thousands a year into tourney entry fees. they are after the big score, not to sneak their way into a tiny return on their money. |
#9
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Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
[ QUOTE ]
it's the same for big tourney pros who are investing hundreds of thousands a year into tourney entry fees. they are after the big score, not to sneak their way into a tiny return on their money. [/ QUOTE ] If $10K is "life changing" money for a supersatellite player, he probably should have sold his seat. I can't speak for anyone else, but many of the "pros" I correspond with evaluate opportunities in terms of expected return. The best players return 1-2 buyins per tourney over the long run. Gaining 1.1 buyins with practically no risk is a pretty good argument for folding under the stated conditions. This isn't to say that lots of "pros" wouldn't be playing hyper aggressively even with a stack that can be picked off rather easily. And conversely, the vast majority of players that super-sated in would play hyper conservatively here (anyone up for a "should I throw away AA preflop" discussion [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ). But just because an opinion aligns with how a low bankroll player would approach the situation, it doesn't mean it's wrong. And just because the conclusions may align doesn't mean the rational was correct in both cases either. -Oz- |
#10
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Re: i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,
[ QUOTE ]
I can't speak for anyone else, but many of the "pros" I correspond with evaluate opportunities in terms of expected return. The best players return 1-2 buyins per tourney over the long run. Gaining 1.1 buyins with practically no risk is a pretty good argument for folding under the stated conditions. [/ QUOTE ] When you mention return 1-2 buyins, it means they get 1 or 2 buyins besides getting their money back. This case is getting 0.1 buyins not 1.1 . Although I do think it is a fold, that argument does not work as you stated it. |
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