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#1
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Blackjack Bonus Clearing Question
Setup: Casino On Net offers an $88 bonus with a 20x playthrough requirement. For ease purposes, let's say you have to bet a total of $1800 to release the bonus. Let's also assume that over this short a term, the house edge is zero.
How do I calculate the probability that I'll lose more than $88 if I bet $3 per hand? What about $5/hand? (Just a quick reality check - the house edge is actually 0.4% so if I play 600 $3 hands to clear the bonus, I expect to lose maybe $8 during the play through. So I expect to net $80. I can play 4 hands/minute so it will take 2.5 hours to clear betting $3/hand. Therefore, my win rate is $32/Hr. Seem right?) |
#2
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Re: Blackjack Bonus Clearing Question
Look up on http://www.bonuswhores.com/casino under Casino on Net and it will show you all you need to know about wagering amounts, standard deviation, risk of ruin, etc playing Blackjack.
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#3
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Re: Blackjack Bonus Clearing Question
sounds good to me, but that 888.com promotion was only good for tuesday the 21st. they usually run the same thing once every month though.
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#4
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Re: Blackjack Bonus Clearing Question
[ QUOTE ]
Setup: Casino On Net offers an $88 bonus with a 20x playthrough requirement. For ease purposes, let's say you have to bet a total of $1800 to release the bonus. Let's also assume that over this short a term, the house edge is zero. How do I calculate the probability that I'll lose more than $88 if I bet $3 per hand? What about $5/hand? (Just a quick reality check - the house edge is actually 0.4% so if I play 600 $3 hands to clear the bonus, I expect to lose maybe $8 during the play through. So I expect to net $80. I can play 4 hands/minute so it will take 2.5 hours to clear betting $3/hand. Therefore, my win rate is $32/Hr. Seem right?) [/ QUOTE ] WR = 88*20 = 1760 EV = -.004*1760 = -7 SD = 1.15*sqrt(1760/3)*3 = 83.5 To be down 88 or more, you have to be .97 SD below the mean (-7 + 83.5x = -88), which will occur 16.6% of the time. If you do the same calculation for $5 bets, you get 22.7%. -- Homer |
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