Interesting turn decision

WillMagic · #1 11-07-2005, 06:46 PM

Nice, loose-passive table. SB looks to be a solid TAG, but other than that no specific reads on the other players save the general loose-passiveness.

PokerStars 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Hero raises, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+2 checks, CO checks, Hero....

Will

newhizzle · #2 11-07-2005, 06:50 PM

id say someone has to have some kind of pair here, so a bet for free showdown with ace high is pretty worthless, also against 3 players i really doubt you have much FE and you clearly dont want to be c/r'd, so id check behind, plus that way hopefuly someone wil bet into you on the river should you hit

edit: and i dont think theyll believe that you have a nine here, also awesome table for 15/30

hobbsmann · #3 11-07-2005, 06:56 PM

check and I don't think it is all that close. Against a smaller field on the turn an argument can be made that you will have enough FE to make a bet EV+, but against 3 opponents, possibly drawing to 8 outs checking is clearly best.

WillMagic · #4 11-07-2005, 07:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
possibly drawing to 8 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

Possibly the world could end tomorrow. Possibly libertarians might take the White House in 2008. Possibly, possibly, whatever. I'm drawing to my full set of outs a huge portion of the time. I also have the best hand a small, but nonetheless significant portion of the time, thus...

[ QUOTE ]
checking is clearly best.

[/ QUOTE ]

...is a clearly wrong statement because it is clearly exaggerating how clear this play is.

Will

hobbsmann · #5 11-07-2005, 07:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
possibly drawing to 8 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

Possibly the world could end tomorrow. Possibly libertarians might take the White House in 2008. Possibly, possibly, whatever. I'm drawing to my full set of outs a huge portion of the time. I also have the best hand a small, but nonetheless significant portion of the time, thus...

[ QUOTE ]
checking is clearly best.

[/ QUOTE ]

...is a clearly wrong statement because it is clearly exaggerating how clear this play is.

Will

[/ QUOTE ]

The possibly 8 outs statement actually doesn't hold much weight in the argument, but anyway.

Let’s give you all 14 outs and look at the various situations:

Assumptions:
FE = 0 (we can changes this, but it's hard to imagine anybody is ever going to fold a better hand here)

outs = 14.

% time we have the best hand = 0 (this is not completely accurate, but we will use it as a starting assumption and we can always just add a little to the EV in the various cases to account for the times we actually have the best hand).

Cases:
-The times that we are not check raised we need to be called in all three spots for our bet to EV+ (EV with 3 callers = 0.21 and EV with 2 callers = -0.09).

-The times we are check/raised our amount of outs we have to improve to the best hand will go down (lets just say 9 as a check/raise doesn't necessarily indicate a 9, but it is the most likely holding). Even if all 3 players call a check/raise by the villain our EV = -0.46 and this is clearly a losing situation, although it could be argued that we will have increased implied odds for the times our flush does get there.

Furthermore, your hand is fairly well disguised and thus checking behind on the turn will not appear to obviously be a flush draw to thinking opponents thus making it more probable your opponents will pay off on the river.

So basically since we will be check/raised some non-zero portion of the time, ever time we are check/raised our EV is < 0, and combined with the fact we need all three callers to make a bet EV+ the times we are not c/r'ed points to checking being the clear favorite.

WillMagic · #6 11-07-2005, 07:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
% time we have the best hand = 0

[/ QUOTE ]

OBVIOUSLY if this is the case then we should check behind.

But this isn't the case. Not by a longshot.

Will

Nick C · #7 11-07-2005, 06:56 PM

Well, it looks like SB, anyway, doesn't have a 9 or any pair here. Maybe your bet will convince someone else that you do. Is that good or bad? I don't know. It depends on if you have the best hand or can convince someone with, for instance, AJ or 66 to fold. Also, though, if you are behind, you may have 14 outs versus the hands that call.

I like your bet, but I'm not going to be shocked or anything if you get checkraised.

brettbrettr · #8 11-07-2005, 06:59 PM

I just check. I don't think you can get 3 hands to fold here.

WillMagic · #9 11-07-2005, 07:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I just check. I don't think you can get 3 hands to fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

No doubt. But AT might be good. And if it is we definitely want to be betting. Good things can happen - we could get heads-up with another draw, we could fold AJ, KQ, and various other hands. Meanwhile if it isn't, we've got tons of outs so we don't lose very much.

brettbrettr · #10 11-07-2005, 07:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I just check. I don't think you can get 3 hands to fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, thinking about it while I smoked and I'm not sure. Considering the board, there's a decent chance you're ahead here and you'd like to get as many guys out as possible. I think a bet will force hands like QJ and KJ and such to fold which if we are ahead, buy us some more outs.

Will, do you think any of these guys folds a middle pair here?