Seeing monsters or boxing clever?

Guy McSucker · #1 10-24-2005, 09:10 PM

Is this clever or stupid? It's a fine line...

Four handed Party $5/10. UTG/CO, who is decent, limps. I raise with two tens on the button. BB calls and UTG limp-reraises. Hmmm. I call and BB calls.

Flop: A T T.

Checked to me, I bet, BB folds and UTG calls.

Turn: 3.

He checks, I bet, he raises, I 3-bet, he caps, I call.

River: A.

He bets. I call.

So? Am I seeing monsters or is this the right play? Or can I fold?

Guy.

RunDownHouse · #2 10-24-2005, 09:25 PM

I would raise before I fold. I think you see a big A go bonkers here often enough, especially 4-handed.

skiier04 · #3 10-24-2005, 09:31 PM

Raise but its close

In my donkish mind

Spartan1983 · #4 10-24-2005, 09:34 PM

If your not going to cap with quads, then yea I think your seeing monsters. He's not slowing down with a fullhouse, bet, if he has AA, tell him NH.

JoshuaD · #5 10-24-2005, 09:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If your not going to cap with quads, then yea I think your seeing monsters. He's not slowing down with a fullhouse, bet, if he has AA, tell him NH.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really think a "decent player" caps on this turn without AA? He could be overplaying AK, but I don't think that accounts for 66% of his holdings (which we'd need to wanna raise this river).

Guy McSucker · #6 10-24-2005, 10:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If your not going to cap with quads, then yea I think your seeing monsters. He's not slowing down with a fullhouse, bet, if he has AA, tell him NH.

[/ QUOTE ]

The way I see it, he's told me loud and clear on three streets that he has AA. The question is whether I should listen, and if so, how hard?

Guy.

RunDownHouse · #7 10-24-2005, 10:30 PM

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The way I see it, he's told me loud and clear on three streets that he has AA. The question is whether I should listen, and if so, how hard?

Guy.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think its ok the way it is. Yes, he's decent so its hard to put him on a hand other than AA. I think that goes double when you think about what he thinks you have. PF button raise/no cap can mean a lot of hands, but probably not big PPs or big aces. Flop you bet when checked to, doesn't mean a whole lot. Your turn 3bet defines your hand pretty well though. Its an A, a lone T, or 33. But he caps anyways. This tells me he has AA, a big A, 33, and that's about it.

It breaks down a bit on the river, because he doesn't fear TT - that would be seeing monsters - so he'd lead with any A, figuring its a split at worst and at best you'll misclick/fold.

Given all that, I don't think you're ahead enough to raise here. But I'm no Hellmuth so I call.

JoshuaD · #8 10-24-2005, 10:44 PM

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But I'm no Hellmuth so I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding here would be terrible. We've got him beat a good percentage of the time. It's just a question of whether we get a value from a raise -- or more clearly, if we're good here > 66% of the time. In this very particular hand, I don't think we have that much of an over.

Guy McSucker · #9 10-25-2005, 07:23 AM

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It's just a question of whether we get a value from a raise -- or more clearly, if we're good here > 66% of the time.

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I see this 66% thing mentioned from time to time and I never understand it. Why does a value raise have to be with a hand that's ahead over two thirds of the time?

Guy.

krishanleong · #10 10-25-2005, 08:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If your not going to cap with quads, then yea I think your seeing monsters. He's not slowing down with a fullhouse, bet, if he has AA, tell him NH.

[/ QUOTE ]

The way I see it, he's told me loud and clear on three streets that he has AA. The question is whether I should listen, and if so, how hard?

Guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

You played it perfectly. I wish I would play it that way in your shoes but I'm sure I would raise the river.

Krishan