3/6, difficult turn decision with TP/NK

[PantherZ]

The villian is 44/24/1.09, but only through 25 hands, so those numbers are dubious.

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6.00 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: (5.00 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>

Call down or fold?

[JoshuaD]

I don't raise JTs UTG, ever. The lowest I go is QJs, A8s, A9o, KJo. QJs depends on the table too.

This is one of those situations that sucks. I call down here because the board is awfully coordinated, and you've got no read on him.

I probably check behind the river if he checks it.

[PantherZ]

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I don't raise JTs UTG, ever.

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I know there are different opinions on this, but I think it's OK to raise this UTG in a 6-max game. In this case, there was a player sitting out, so it was only 5-handed.

[raze]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't raise JTs UTG, ever. The lowest I go is QJs, A8s, A9o, KJo. QJs depends on the table too.

This is one of those situations that sucks. I call down here because the board is awfully coordinated, and you've got no read on him.

I probably check behind the river if he checks it.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is the board awfully coordinated? At the turn there is no possible straight, no possible flush, and J9 aside 2pair is very unlikely (J3, J5, 95, 93, 53 ??) Fold because he only has AF = 1 and you shouldn't be there in the first place.

[MicroBob]

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Fold because he only has AF = 1

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AF of 1 isn't too too passive for someone with those kind of PF numbers (there IS a correlation...AF of 1 is passive if you're 21/14, it's not as passive for his numbers).


I call down but I also hate myself for it.

Maybe he just picked up 2nd pair and he already had a flush-draw (and he's perhaps only check-calling the flop with only a flush-draw).
It's a theory anyway...but it probably doesn't have a 1:4 chance of being correct.


This is tough to read though because he only check-called the flop while also holding a TPNK (so I guess he is pretty passive afterall...with such a small sample the AF should not be taken too seriously).

[ QUOTE ]
This is tough to read though because he only check-called the flop while also holding a TPNK (so I guess he is pretty passive afterall...with such a small sample the AF should not be taken too seriously).

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No, villain bet/called the flop.

I think I'd be able to find a fold here without the double suited board whispering semi-bluff.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't raise JTs UTG, ever. The lowest I go is QJs, A8s, A9o, KJo. QJs depends on the table too.

This is one of those situations that sucks. I call down here because the board is awfully coordinated, and you've got no read on him.

I probably check behind the river if he checks it.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is the board awfully coordinated? At the turn there is no possible straight, no possible flush, and J9 aside 2pair is very unlikely (J3, J5, 95, 93, 53 ??) Fold because he only has AF = 1 and you shouldn't be there in the first place.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are alot suited ace hands he has that he's making this check-raise with.

It's been my experience that people bluff-raise turns that give them a flush draw pretty often, especially if he was already in there with a gutshot or a weak pair.

edit: MicroBob's dead on with AF numbers. AF is a crappy noisy stat. The more loose they are preflop, the more aggressive lower numbers are.

Id fold it. If there would have come in three to a flush or if a low card would have paired then its an easy call but as it looks now he probably isnt on a bluff. He either hit something or he slowplayed something.

[JoshuaD]

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Id fold it. If there would have come in three to a flush or if a low card would have paired then its an easy call but as it looks now he probably isnt on a bluff. He either hit something or he slowplayed something.

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That's not my experience here at all. Especially with such a dubious read I'm calling down here. This is a flush draw pretty frequently.

I'm even tempted to 3-bet/fold, and check behind the river. It's too crazy to really do, but it's worth considering.

[raze]

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edit: MicroBob's dead on with AF numbers. AF is a crappy noisy stat. The more loose they are preflop, the more aggressive lower numbers are.

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Can you explain this a bit more plz ?