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#1
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Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
Hey all,
Here's a hand that I didn't play, but read from someone else. Wondering what people think, I had one gut reaction instantly, but the discussion that evolved made me rethink my thoughts. Here's the hand. --------------------------------------------------------- $10 SNG on Party. The table was unusual for these SnGs in that there was a lot of limping and not much preflop raising. Seat 1: null2 (1025) Seat 2: Bob (413) Seat 3: Joe (1735) Seat 4: Sam (1261) Seat 5: HERO (750) Seat 10: null1 (2816) Sam posts small blind (25) HERO posts big blind (50) ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to HERO [ 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ] null1 folds. null2 folds. Bob raises (100) to 100 Joe calls (100) Sam calls (75) HERO calls (50) -- Pot has 400 ** Dealing Flop ** : [ 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ] Sam bets (85) I have 650 chips and the pot is now at 485. What should I do? |
#2
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Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
OK, I'll bite.
I push. Now tell me why I'm wrong. |
#3
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Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
I fold... neither straight nor flush is anywhere close to being the nuts. (unless you hit your straight flush, although that's still NOT going to be the nuts..) I don't think high clubs are going to fold this, neither are hands like JT, or T9, etc...
I think you'll be drawing very thin if you pushed this here, unless your villians are way tight and all fold, which at a $10 Party SNG is highly unlikely. |
#4
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Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
I fold... neither straight nor flush is anywhere close to being the nuts. (unless you hit your straight flush, although that's still NOT going to be the nuts..) I don't think high clubs are going to fold this, neither are hands like JT, or T9, etc... I think you'll be drawing very thin if you pushed this here, unless your villians are way tight and all fold, which at a $10 Party SNG is highly unlikely. [/ QUOTE ] What, you think they all hit this flop hard? The point is you will have a strong draw against anyone who didn't flop a flush... and you still have outs even there. |
#5
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Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I fold... neither straight nor flush is anywhere close to being the nuts. (unless you hit your straight flush, although that's still NOT going to be the nuts..) I don't think high clubs are going to fold this, neither are hands like JT, or T9, etc... I think you'll be drawing very thin if you pushed this here, unless your villians are way tight and all fold, which at a $10 Party SNG is highly unlikely. [/ QUOTE ] What, you think they all hit this flop hard? The point is you will have a strong draw against anyone who didn't flop a flush... and you still have outs even there. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think anybody with the Ac/Jc (possibly Kc/Qc) is folding here, therefore blowing away most of your outs that make you favourite against a pair. I just don't see you having the 15 outs that you imagine having here. |
#6
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Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I fold... neither straight nor flush is anywhere close to being the nuts. (unless you hit your straight flush, although that's still NOT going to be the nuts..) I don't think high clubs are going to fold this, neither are hands like JT, or T9, etc... I think you'll be drawing very thin if you pushed this here, unless your villians are way tight and all fold, which at a $10 Party SNG is highly unlikely. [/ QUOTE ] What, you think they all hit this flop hard? The point is you will have a strong draw against anyone who didn't flop a flush... and you still have outs even there. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think anybody with the Ac/Jc (possibly Kc/Qc) is folding here, therefore blowing away most of your outs that make you favourite against a pair. I just don't see you having the 15 outs that you imagine having here. [/ QUOTE ] You have a pair already. If AcKh wants to come along, for example, you're fine with that. If they have a better pair *and* a higher club, just draw to the non-club straight instead. Sure, you can construct scenarios where each villain has specifically the type of hand that kills a different set of your outs, but how often will that happen? |
#7
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Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
I push. It takes a very special hand to be ahead of us here. Namely, a better hand and a better draw or a set, and there's tons of dead money in the pot.
Board: 9c 8c Tc Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 55.1515 % 54.34% 00.81% { 9h7c } Hand 2: 44.8485 % 44.04% 00.81% { JdTs } Board: 9c 8c Tc Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 61.5152 % 60.10% 01.41% { 9h7c } Hand 2: 38.4848 % 37.07% 01.41% { Ac8s } Board: 9c 8c Tc Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 45.5051 % 43.94% 01.57% { 9h7c } Hand 2: 54.4949 % 52.93% 01.57% { 8d8s } Board: 9c 8c Tc Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 38.9899 % 37.58% 01.41% { 9h7c } Hand 2: 61.0101 % 59.60% 01.41% { AcTs } |
#8
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Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
I think what's missing here is the possibility of there being two of these (or similar) hands out there. The fact that it's a multi-way pot drastically reduces your chances of winning, and you didn't even factor in anyone having the Jc.
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#9
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Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
I push. It takes a very special hand to be ahead of us here. Namely, a better hand and a better draw or a set, and there's tons of dead money in the pot. Board: 9c 8c Tc Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 55.1515 % 54.34% 00.81% { 9h7c } Hand 2: 44.8485 % 44.04% 00.81% { JdTs } Board: 9c 8c Tc Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 61.5152 % 60.10% 01.41% { 9h7c } Hand 2: 38.4848 % 37.07% 01.41% { Ac8s } Board: 9c 8c Tc Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 45.5051 % 43.94% 01.57% { 9h7c } Hand 2: 54.4949 % 52.93% 01.57% { 8d8s } Board: 9c 8c Tc Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 38.9899 % 37.58% 01.41% { 9h7c } Hand 2: 61.0101 % 59.60% 01.41% { AcTs } [/ QUOTE ] Why did you not include JQ or two clubs, two very possible holdings that put hero way behind? |
#10
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Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
Why did you not include JQ or two clubs, two very possible holdings that put hero way behind? [/ QUOTE ] Because you have no reason to believe they are there? Come on guys, you can't fold this and shouldn't even think about anything but pushing for over half a second. |
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