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#1
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Folding pocket tens to an early position raise
So I'm in a $55 game at party and I haven't really played a hand the whole time. Was this a timid laydown or a good move?
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) CO (t965) Hero (t1110) SB (t445) BB (t185) UTG (t1240) UTG+1 (t1235) MP1 (t3620) MP2 (t1200) Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls t50, <font color="CC3333">CO raises to t150</font>, Hero folds, SB folds, BB folds, MP2 calls t100. Flop: (t375) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font> <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets t100</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO raises to t225</font>, MP2 calls t125. Turn: (t825) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font> MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets t125</font>, MP2 folds. Final Pot: t950 |
#2
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Re: Folding pocket tens to an early position raise
I think it all depends on your read of the other player...it's always a tough one...calling a tenth of your stack hoping to make a set isn't ever the right play...pushing in this situation might give you longterm +EV and folding doesn't really hurt you...the blinds aren't huge yet so maybe I'd wait for another hand as well...
But if I felt - even a little bit - that the CO was making a play, I'd push. |
#3
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Re: Folding pocket tens to an early position raise
> But if I felt - even a little bit - that the CO was
> making a play, I'd push. CO was a solid player, so my thought process was that he wouldn't make a 3xBB raise simply to steal, given the limper in front of him. (BTW, just realized that my title was a mistake.. it was a middle position limp, late position raise. Should have read something like "play tens behind a limp and a raise") |
#4
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Re: Folding pocket tens to an early position raise
I'd never fold here, but lately I've been convinced that reraising them is wrong, too. I think just calling TT-JJ may be good.
Keep in mind you'll flop a set *or* an overpair something like 50% of the time and you're in LP. You can safely lay down to an all in reraise if it comes to that, but that hand seems too good to fold preflop. |
#5
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Re: Folding pocket tens to an early position raise
[ QUOTE ]
Keep in mind you'll flop a set *or* an overpair something like 50% of the time and you're in LP. [/ QUOTE ] Actually, I think it's more like < 1/3 of the time. Where do you get 50%? eastbay |
#6
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Re: Folding pocket tens to an early position raise
[ QUOTE ]
Keep in mind you'll flop a set *or* an overpair something like 50% of the time and you're in LP. [/ QUOTE ] According to this page about flopping overcards, there will be an overcard 69.5% of the time for pocket tens. You flop a set 1 of 8 times (off the top of my head) which is 12.5 percent. Unfortunately, you can't just add the 12.5 to the 30.5 (percentage w/o overcard) because part of the time when there is no overcard (the 30.5%), you also make your set. They are intersecting sets of probabilities (math sets, not 3 of a kinds sets). I think if we multiply the 12.5 by the 69.5 to get 8.7% and add that to the 30.5% we're pretty damn close. Sooo.. my educated guess is 39%, not 50%. Isn't math fun? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] The linked website is very cool. There is some other stuff like how often your suited cards actually make a flush. |
#7
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Re: Folding pocket tens to an early position raise
Actually, flopping a set =
1 - (no set) = 1 - ( 48/50 * 47/49 * 46/48 ) = 11.755% so about 1 in 8.5 Just had to do the math. |
#8
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Re: Folding pocket tens to an early position raise
The fold is a safe play...but safe is boring [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
So if I were to play this, id put him on overs and cold call. If the flop comes rags, and when he leads (and he will), I would raise him and steal the pot there |
#9
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Re: Folding pocket tens to an early position raise
Here's a similar hand....
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (7 handed) SB (t1605) Hero (t1510) UTG (t620) MP1 (t520) MP2 (t1725) CO (t535) Button (t1485) Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises to t60</font>, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls t30, Flop: (t135) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets t65</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t300</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises to t1100</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t1450 (All-In)</font>, MP2 calls t350. Turn: (t3035) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font> River: (t3035) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font> Final Pot: t3035 |
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