Why does this happen in online poker?

trumpman84 · #1 04-24-2004, 10:13 PM

So, I'm playing a game at party poker. I get dealt 44 and two others get 22, and JJ. The JJ limps so we all see the flop.

The flop comes out 4, 2, J giving all of us a set. The set of 2's bets out, the J's raises all in and I call. The JJ actually gets 4 of a kind of the river and takes the huge pot. I type: "That hand just seems impossible." Afterwards, I did some odds calculating. At a 10 handed table, the odds for 3 people to get dealt a pocket pair on the same hand is 1229 to 1. The odds of 3 people improving a pocket pair to a set on the flop of the same hand is 729 to 1. So, the odds of both of these things happening on the same hand is approx. 894,941 to 1. It just doesn't seem likely that even through a lifetime a playing poker, you would ever see this, but even if it happened once, I would be ok...everything happens at one time or another. It's just that these really improbably hands happen all the time it seems.

The guy who had the jacks said that earlier the same day, he was playing in a tournament in which him and another guy both got pocket kings and they were playing against a guy who had pocket Aces on the first hand. All 3 went all in....and the pocket K's with no K's left in the deck, outdrew the pockets A's and chopped the pot with a straight.

I've noticed that these just totally unlikely don't seem to happen nearly as much at other poker sites I've been to or in real life games, so is it something with party poker or is it just some coincidence? What do you think?

Tyler Durden · #2 04-24-2004, 10:16 PM

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I've noticed that these just totally unlikely don't seem to happen nearly as much at other poker sites I've been to or in real life games, so is it something with party poker or is it just some coincidence? What do you think?

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I think all online poker is rigged.

PuppetMaster · #3 04-25-2004, 01:46 AM

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I've noticed that these just totally unlikely don't seem to happen nearly as much at other poker sites I've been to or in real life games, so is it something with party poker or is it just some coincidence? What do you think?

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I think all online poker is rigged.

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r u serious?

JTG51 · #4 04-24-2004, 10:17 PM

Ah, finally a new topic to discuss.

Internet poker is clearly rigged. In fact, a guy I know once made two royal flushes within a couple of hours.

Oh wait, that was in a casino. Clearly casino poker is rigged.

Cubswin · #5 04-24-2004, 10:19 PM

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At a 10 handed table, the odds for 3 people to get dealt a pocket pair on the same hand is 1229 to 1.

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Can I see your math please?

regards
cubswin

trumpman84 · #6 04-24-2004, 10:37 PM

Certainly...

The odds of getting dealt any pocket pair are 16 to 1. It happening 3 times on the same hand therefore is 16x16x16= 4,096 to 1...however this is only if there are 3 people playing so I divided it by 3.3333 since that is how many chances it has on a 10 handed and got 1228.8 or 1229 to 1. (Not sure if I did this part correctly with the dividing by 3.333)

Second part. You have a 9 to 1 chance to flop a set if you hold a pocket pair. Again 9x9x9 = 729 to 1. Since there are only 3 chances for this to happen and 3 cards dealt, I didn't dived this one.

Now you take 1229 (the odds of 3 people getting dealt a pocket pair in a 10 handed table) x 729 (the odds of 3 people flopping a set on the same hand) and get 895941 to 1. Now I'm no math or statistics expert, so if you are, feel free to correct.

Also, I'm not saying that ANY time this happens, it's wrong, I'm just saying it seems to happen a lot in online poker.

MicroBob · #7 04-25-2004, 12:52 AM

i'm not going to even attempt to do the math here since i would definately screw it up.
but i do think the math here is flawed.

in a 3-handed game, the odds of all 3 players geting dealt a pocket-pair at the same time would have to be slightly smaller then the odds of one specific player getting dealt pocket-pair 3x in a row (which indeed would be 16x16x16).

again, i might be way off here.
and it probably doesn't affect the end result by a huge amount.

also, i think the odds for the 3 pocket-pair to flop a set might be a bit higher.
for one of the players to hit the set is 9-to-1.....but the 2nd player is NOT getting a new 3-card flop, so he essentially only gets 2 cards to hit the set.

this is a big 'i dont really know what the hell i'm talking about here' so someone please help me out.

for example, if one player gets a pocket-pair, are the odds still 16-to-1 for someone else to get one (because now we're down to 50 remaining cards)??

gabyyyyy · #8 04-25-2004, 01:10 AM

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in a 3-handed game, the odds of all 3 players geting dealt a pocket-pair at the same time would have to be slightly smaller then the odds of one specific player

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You do not know whether it was only three handed before the flop.

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also, i think the odds for the 3 pocket-pair to flop a set might be a bit higher.

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A bit?? Your theory does not even count the odds of 3 people being dealt pocket pairs all in the same hand. However the odds of getting three of a kind are 46-1 not 9-1 this also does not include that they completed it by hitting a 2 outer by holding the pair in their hand.

I would say the odds of this event happening are Approx one in 97336 hands. (46x46x46) or 46 cubed.

MicroBob · #9 04-25-2004, 02:34 AM

go back and re-read please.

also....does somebody speak gabbyyyyy-ese. i can't figure out what on earth she's trying to say.

does anyone know where that 46-to-1 comes from??

Nottom · #10 04-25-2004, 02:36 AM

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However the odds of getting three of a kind are 46-1 not 9-1 this also does not include that they completed it by hitting a 2 outer by holding the pair in their hand.

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I'm looking foward to seeing the math behind this one. I guess I've just been really lucky with my pairs since I'm catching sets at a much greater rate than once in 46 times.