Poll on risk aversion: a continuation of the Bankroll on AA thread

[Derek in NYC]

I started a different thread, but Sfer had a great idea, which I decided to make into a poll. Assume the following:

Your entire bankroll must be at stake. If you lose it, you will be unable to continue to play poker at the level you are accustomed to, and must rebuild.

Bill Gates offers you a proposition bet. You think of a whole number between 1 and X, inclusive. Gates guesses. If you win, you double your bankroll. If you lose, you wait for July's rakeback and start over. How big does X have to be? (The question essentially asks you to define the odds you require to risk your bankroll.

[W. Deranged]

Anyone who answers "2" should seriously consider Gambler's Anonymous.

[hobbsmann]

Nice, I picked 3 as well.

[Derek in NYC]

Anybody who picked 3 should be in the NL forum instead of SSH.

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
Anybody who picked 3 should be in the NL forum instead of SSH.

[/ QUOTE ]

NH.

[peterchi]

[ QUOTE ]
Anybody who picked 3 should be in the NL forum instead of SSH.

[/ QUOTE ]

but i'm currently better at limit...

i sort of understand your logic, but not entirely.

the reflection of my choosing 3 is that i am willing to take shots above my bankroll when games look good.

i am young, i have a job, and actually i'm young enough and lucky enough that my parents will still bail me out if i really [censored] up. losing my poker bankroll will make me cry but not jump off a bridge.

but i mostly play limit because that's where i win more right now.

[tipperdog]

[ QUOTE ]

Bill Gates offers you a proposition bet: You think of a whole number between 1 and X, inclusive. Gates guesses. If you win, you double your bankroll. How big does X have to be?

[/ QUOTE ]

Since I only have to "think" of the number, I pick 2 and plan to cheat.

[callmedonnie]

I said ten as that is a great bet, but I am tempted to do more. The reasoning that I want an even better bet, and more than 20 times my bankroll might not be negative EV for him. So I want him dropping as much as possible, as its all peanuts.

After all, this is a guy who loses $ if he takes time to go out of his way and pick up a twenty. He's gonna have to cough it up. That's why I'm gonna get him wasted before making this wager.

[ QUOTE ]
I said ten as that is a great bet, but I am tempted to do more. The reasoning that I want an even better bet, and more than 20 times my bankroll might not be negative EV for him. So I want him dropping as much as possible, as its all peanuts.

After all, this is a guy who loses $ if he takes time to go out of his way and pick up a twenty. He's gonna have to cough it up. That's why I'm gonna get him wasted before making this wager.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's all gonna be -EV for him unless you pick two, the question is variance for you.

[MrStretchie]

[ QUOTE ]
I said ten as that is a great bet, but I am tempted to do more. The reasoning that I want an even better bet, and more than 20 times my bankroll might not be negative EV for him. So I want him dropping as much as possible, as its all peanuts.

After all, this is a guy who loses $ if he takes time to go out of his way and pick up a twenty. He's gonna have to cough it up. That's why I'm gonna get him wasted before making this wager.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uhh.. but that's not how it works. Regardless of the range, if you win, you double your bankroll. The only question is what are your odds of winning.

Edit: also, wtf does this mean?
"The reasoning that I want an even better bet, and more than 20 times my bankroll might not be negative EV for him."