Llabb's Locks (NBA)

[llabb]

Alright, so I don't believe in locks, but it's a nice title anyway. I did fairly well in the NBA last year, particularly in the playoffs, but I didn't keep very good records. If I leave it simply to me and my buddy Excel again, I'll probably screw up this year's data too. So for added discipline and motivation, I'm going to keep track of my picks here, for all to enjoy or laugh at.

I rate my picks as 1 unit, 2 unit, or 3 unit wagers, since that's how I bet them. Average plays are 2 units, but I start the season at just 1 unit until I have a better feel for how teams have changed or see crazy lines. Juice will be taken out of unit wins/losses.

Wish me luck! Have a great NBA season all.

[llabb]

To kick off the season, I've taken the following all at 1 unit, from -107 to -110.

Milwaukee +6
Denver 1st half +4
Dallas -1
Sac/Dal Under 215
SA/Den Under 189

[ImNew]

gl... i'll post my bets too
Nov-1 NBA MILWAUKEE +7 -110 @5dimes ($5.5)
Nov-1 NBA ORLANDO +6 -110 @5dimes ($5.5)
Nov-1 NBA MEMPHIS +5 -110 @5dimes ($5.5)
Nov-1 NBA New Orleans +7.5 -107 @canbet ($5.35)
Nov-1 NBA Dallas Mavericks +2.5 -113 @matchbook ($5)
Nov-1 NBA Dallas Mavericks +2.5 +100 @matchbook ($5)
Nov-3 NBA Washington Wizards -1.5 -107 @canbet ($5)

[llabb]

YTD 3-2, +0.8 units

Nice night for most people last night, it seems. Thought I had 4-1, until Dallas-Phoenix went into not only overtime but also double OT. Anyway, full slate tonight. All picks 1 unit, unless otherwise noted.

Was -2
Ind -6.5
Ind/Orl U 189
Bos -3.5 2u
Mem -4.5
Dal -3 2u
Den -6.5
Tsr NJ -3.5 & Det -3 2u
Tsr Min -6 & Chi -4

[llabb]

Added Dal/Uta U 190.5

[llabb]

Added Den/LAL 2nd half U 103.5

[llabb]

Yesterday 7-4 +1.6u
YTD 10-6 +2.4u

A decent start, but I'm a little ticked at myself for jumping the gun on some marginal games. I was a little overly excited, after waiting for the NBA so long. Sticking to the solid games only would have yielded 6-2, +3.8u last night, a whole 2.2 units more. While still playing 8 games, it's not like I wasn't getting any action already, lol.

And like others have mentioned, getting screwed by OT hurts even more than a normal loss, sucks to get rivered. I don't know the stats on this, but I gotta guess that 5 OT games (including 1 double OT) by the 2nd day of the season is unusual. Anyone know what % of games go into OT?

On to Thurs night, only 2 games, so they're easy to focus on, but the lines might be sharper. I'm already liking the Mia/Ind Under 186.5, will analyze more and post later.

[dankhank]

dal -3 1/2 unit
ytd 2-1 +.5

enjoying your picks, and you seem to be one of the few people on free pick sites that is doing well.

what do you think about toronto +10 @ philadelphia?? raptors have been absolutely horrendous (i had a thread about pounding raptors and it's proven to work 100% since opening night i believe)... however, in our OT loss to seattle, i think we came up with some combinations and styles that really seemed to click (basically 2 PG system with calderon/james together. villaneuva, bosh, mo pete all very athletic. so it might really click).. i think i see a point spread swing on raptors coming.

two of the worst defenses in NBA. we are absolutely awful.

[llabb]

Thanks for the words. There'll probably be a let down after a good night last night, but hopefully things are starting to look up for the season.

Your Toronto thread was great, with them being 0-6 ATS. They suck. That being said, they did give Seattle a good run for their money (although Sea sucks too), and lines may be inflated against them. 10+ is a lot of points, and they could well cover. I'm not impressed by Phi, but they have won their last 4 against some pretty good competition. So I'm not going to try and catch a falling knife with Tor. Whatever happens tonight should give a good read for tomorrow when they face each other again anway.

As for Boston, I think they get killed tonight, but I don't think I'm playing it at the high line set. I think the close game last time was just a normal case of good teams having a tougher time on the road. Det also only beat Portland by 3 on the road. But at home, they dominate. I can't see them shooting under 40% again while letting Pierce go off for more than 50%.

All just one person's opinion.