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#1
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GENIUS IDEA
Take all your extra money from poker, go play BJ with it. If you lose, write it off as a deduction. Wouldn't this be +EV?
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#2
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Re: GENIUS IDEA
I guess that was what I was getting at with my Tax Q post, but you would want a number of reputable witnesses to confirm that you were at the table and those were your losses. A tournament receipt is easier. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#3
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Re: GENIUS IDEA
I thought of this too -- well, let's work it out:
Assumption: BJ is 52 / 48 % in house's favor. You have $100,000 in annual poker profits, on which the tax, for argument's sake, is $39,000. Hypo A Simply pay the tax. EV: +$61,000 Hypo B You bet the entire $100,000 on a single hand (discounts possibility of split / double-down) with 48% chance of winning. EV if you win: +$200,000 >> again pay 39% tax, so $122,000 EV if you lose: $0. Overall EV of placing the bet = (122K x .48) + (0 x .52) = $58,560. So no, it's still not worth it. The illusion that initially makes it SEEM like +EV is that you view the taxes you have to pay as a LOSS at the end of the year. Which is theoretically wrong...you really should view the tax you owe as accumulating on your winnings as soon as you post them. |
#4
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Re: GENIUS IDEA
Ok... GENIUS IDEA #2 - microwave reese's peanut butter cups.
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#5
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Re: GENIUS IDEA
Ok... that was a bad idea. The peanut butter does not melt as expected.
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#6
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Re: GENIUS IDEA
without responding to the rest of the sillyness of teddy-fbi's idea:
Blackjack typically breaks-down to something like this (for the non-card-counter) 42% - win 49% - loss 9% - push It gets to be closer to a -1.5 or 2% disadvantage game for the player because of doubling-down and splitting (presumably when it's +EV...although this isn't always the case for the vast majority of players) and from the 3:2 pay-off on blackjack. If you really were to bet all of your money on onew hand then you would be losing out on a lot of EV by denying yourself the opportunity to double-down or split when the opportunity were to arrive. Also: it's not that hard to learn how the basics of counting-cards and make blackjack pretty much a break-even game with minimal effort (more complicated for certain games including single-deck 6:5-payoff games and the continuous-auto-shuffler games where you're almost always being dealt from the top of the shoe) |
#7
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Re: GENIUS IDEA
Miscounting cards can actually put you in a worse situation that just playing normally.
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#8
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Re: GENIUS IDEA
Admittedly, many of my assumptions were stupid; I just didn't have the time to work out all the intricacies.
The fact remains that this is not a +EV idea. |
#9
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Re: GENIUS IDEA
[ QUOTE ]
Ok... that was a bad idea. The peanut butter does not melt as expected. [/ QUOTE ] i don't know why, but this made me smile. |
#10
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Re: GENIUS IDEA
With taxes from poker - say i win 1 big tourny for 225k. So do i pay taxes on that 225k right then and there or do I pay my end of year winnings?
So say im a big fish and dump my money at 50/100nl and lose 200k - do i pay on just the 25k? |
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