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#1
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WR and Moving Up-- a Simple Model
I'm not a mathematican. I don't claim this simplistic approach has any real predictive value. I just did it for fun.
Problem: Predict a player's win rate on moving to a different game level. Given: average pfr% and vp$ip numbers for limits from $.5/1 to $10/20. Source of some of this is here: stats at different levels, posted by joseki Assumptions: 1) The parameter S=pfr%/vp$ip is a measure of skill. 2) Expected WR is proportional to skill level difference: WR= WRh*(Sh-Sg)/Sp, where WRh= hero's winrate at current game Sh= hero's skill level Sp= Skill level of average player at current game Sg= Skill level of average player at a given game Results: The expected WR for a player who currently plays $2/4 with a WR of 2 BB/100, pfr%=7% and vp$ip=20% is shown in the Excel chart below (yellow line). I haven't checked this against any actual player results. |
#2
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Re: WR and Moving Up-- a Simple Model
This is interesting, but I don't really think that [ QUOTE ]
1) The parameter S=pfr%/vp$ip is a measure of skill. [/ QUOTE ] is very close to being true, although there will be a relation to skill level. A LAG with a vpip of 50% and pfr of 30% would have a higher skill rating than a TAG with a vpip of 16 and pfr of 9. Also, my S value is about 0.6, which would have me winning astronomical amounts at any level. |
#3
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Re: WR and Moving Up-- a Simple Model
[ QUOTE ]
Also, my S value is about 0.6, which would have me winning astronomical amounts at any level. [/ QUOTE ] This would only be true if you are winning astronomical amounts at your current level. But you're right that this measure is flawed, especially at the extremes. |
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