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#1
03-29-2005, 12:51 AM
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Downswings (no hand content)
We all know downswings are part of the deal. I am wondering if there is a way to categorize them, or if they come in all shapes and sizes. I am currently in a 150BB downswing over the last 2 days (5K hands). Would this be a "standard" downswing, or is it severe, or mild. Just curious.
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#3
03-29-2005, 01:03 AM
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Re: Downswings (no hand content)
[ QUOTE ]
It's standard. [/ QUOTE ] What is "non-standard"? Is there such an animal as -1500bb in 1K hands? I'm sure there is for a retard, but there has to be a maximum variance for a solid player. Or am I way off?
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#4
03-29-2005, 02:35 AM
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Re: Downswings (no hand content)
search around in probability for variance and [censored] like that. ultimately you'll find out you could play a few hundred thousand hands of winning poker and not REALLY be a winning player, possibly... it's just that you've been running good.
the point is... there's no cut off between a normal downswing and an abormal downswing that anyone can give you. if you feel like you're stressin' it.... yadda yadda yadda, you know the rest, right?
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#5
03-29-2005, 02:41 AM
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Re: Downswings (no hand content)
[ QUOTE ]
ultimately you'll find out you could play a few hundred thousand hands of winning poker and not REALLY be a winning player, possibly... it's just that you've been running good. [/ QUOTE ] Ugh. So how can anyone say that they are a winning player?
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#6
03-29-2005, 02:56 AM
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Re: Downswings (no hand content)
because it's very likely that you are if you've maintained a winning rate over a few hundred thousand hands.
you just couldn't say for mathematical certainty, based solely on those statistics. you couldn't PROVE it, is all i'm saying. all this really means is that you can't accurately quote your win rate, and that you shouldn't worry about downswings, because a hundred thousand hands from now, that 200 bb will just be a blip. if you're having trouble clawing your way out, step away. it's hard to stay objective when you're losing. particularly during your first NOTICEABLE major downswing. even if you're playing reasonably solid, you're doubting yourself, and you'll start making poor decisions at times, particularly when those decisions are close. you'll turn it around. promise.
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#7
03-29-2005, 04:02 AM
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Re: Downswings (no hand content)
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#8
03-29-2005, 10:26 AM
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Re: Downswings (no hand content)
[ QUOTE ]
Is there such an animal as -1500bb in 1K hands? [/ QUOTE ] Yes. I had one after Evan suggested I move to 5/10SH and I had no idea how to play shorthanded. [ QUOTE ] I'm sure there is for a retard, [/ QUOTE ] I'm SPECIAL not retarded. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
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